Minnesota Democratic Senate Primary Winner: how this market works

What you need to know

This market is asking a simple question: which Democrat will win the party's primary election for U.S. Senate in Minnesota in 2026? The two main candidates right now are Peggy Flanagan, Minnesota's current Lieutenant Governor, and Angie Craig, a former U.S. Representative. Whoever wins this primary becomes the Democratic nominee and goes on to face the Republican candidate in the general election. A Yes for Flanagan means she wins the primary vote; a Yes for Craig means Craig does. The market settles based on who actually wins the Democratic primary election, which takes place on August 11, 2026, that date is also when the market closes. The result is confirmed using the official announcement from the Minnesota Democratic Party, or a clear consensus from major credible news outlets if that comes first. One edge case worth knowing: if the primary somehow does not happen at all, the market resolves as 'Other', not as a win for any candidate. None of the provided news headlines relate to the Minnesota Democratic Senate primary. There is no recent Minnesota-specific news to point to here. The kind of developments worth watching for would be candidate endorsements from major Minnesota organizations, polling from the state, fundraising reports, or any candidate dropping out or entering the race. The market currently prices Flanagan at around 78% and Craig at around 20%, so this is not an even contest in the market's view. At that level, the main uncertainty is simply whether something unexpected shifts the race, such as a major endorsement going the other way, a candidate controversy, a strong ground game from Craig, or new polling showing a tighter race. Primaries can also have lower and less predictable turnout than general elections, which adds a layer of unpredictability even when one candidate looks clearly ahead.

The odds right now

• Peggy Flanagan+0.5 pts (1w)78%
• Angie Craig-1.0 pts (1w)20%
• Melisa Hortman-0.1 pts (1w)0%
• Ilhan Omar+0.1 pts (1w)0%
• Betty McCollum-0.1 pts (1w)0%
• Melisa López Franzen0%
• Keith Ellison-0.1 pts (1w)0%
• Jacob Frey-0.3 pts (1w)0%
• Steve Simon-0.2 pts (1w)0%
• David Wellstone-0.1 pts (1w)0%

Price history

How this resolves

Resolves August 11, 2026

This market will resolve according to the winner of the Democratic Primary for United States Senator from Minnesota. If no 2026 Minnesota Democratic Senate Primary takes place, this market will resolve to "Other". Read the full resolution rules on the live market page.

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