MLS Cup Winner 2026: how this market works

What you need to know

This market is asking which team will lift the MLS Cup trophy at the end of the 2026 season. The MLS Cup is the championship final that crowns the best team in Major League Soccer each year. A 'Yes' on a team means you believe they will win that final; a 'No' means they won't. Right now, the market gives Inter Miami CF the highest chance at 31%, Vancouver Whitecaps FC at 13%, and Nashville SC at 8%, with the remaining roughly 48% spread across all other teams. This market settles based on whichever team officially wins the 2026 MLS Cup final, expected to be played before December 31, 2026. MLS is the deciding authority. If a team is eliminated at any point during the season or playoffs, their market resolves 'No' immediately, you don't have to wait until December. One important edge case: if the 2026 season is cancelled or the Cup final is pushed past December 31, 2026, the whole market resolves as 'Other' rather than Yes or No. None of the provided news headlines are relevant to the 2026 MLS season or this market. The stories cover global crime enforcement, US-Canada trade tensions, and international conflict. To follow this market meaningfully, watch for news about team performance during the MLS regular season, player signings or injuries, and playoff bracket results as December approaches. An entire soccer season is one of the hardest sporting events to predict. Injuries to key players, mid-season trades, coaching changes, and simple match-to-match variance can completely reshape a team's chances. Inter Miami is the clear market favorite, partly due to high-profile talent, but a 31% implied probability still means the market thinks they fail to win more often than not. The tournament format means even a strong team can be eliminated by one bad game in the playoffs. A lot can change between now and December.

The odds right now

• Inter Miami CF-1.5 pts (1w)29%
• Vancouver Whitecaps FC+1.6 pts (1w)15%
• Los Angeles FC+4.0 pts (1w)10%
• Nashville SC+1.1 pts (1w)9%
• Chicago Fire FC+0.8 pts (1w)6%
• FC Cincinnati-0.9 pts (1w)4%
• San Jose Earthquakes-0.1 pts (1w)4%
• Seattle Sounders FC-0.1 pts (1w)4%
• St. Louis City SC+2.9 pts (1w)3%
• Orlando City SC+1.5 pts (1w)2%
• New York City FC2%
• San Diego FC+0.1 pts (1w)2%

Price history

How this resolves

Resolves December 19, 2026

This market will resolve according to the team that wins the 2026 MLS Cup. If at any point it becomes impossible for a listed team to win the 2026 MLS Cup per the rules of MLS (e.g. Read the full resolution rules on the live market page.

Related

Same markets. A fraction of the fee.

These apps all route to the same exchange order book. The difference is what each one adds on top of the exchange's own fee.

Published rates, checked July 2026. MetaMask charges a flat 4 percent per prediction trade. Jupiter adds a fee equal to the exchange's own taker fee at fill time, roughly 2 to 4 percent at typical odds. Where a market carries an exchange settlement fee, it applies everywhere, whichever app you use. Paridesk adds nothing on maker orders.

Trade this market on Paridesk: non-custodial, 0.5% fee.