MO-05 Republican Primary Winner: how this market works

What you need to know

This market asks which Republican candidate will win the party's primary election for Missouri's 5th Congressional District on August 4, 2026. A win for Rick Brattin means he becomes the Republican nominee for that House seat. A win for Taylor Burks or Brett Hueffmeier means one of them does instead. This is purely about the primary, which decides who the Republican Party officially puts forward, not who wins the general election in November. The market settles on whoever wins the Republican primary vote on August 4, 2026. The result is confirmed using official Republican Party sources, including the RNC website. One important edge case: if the winner is later replaced as the nominee before the general election, the market still resolves based on whoever won the primary, not whoever ends up on the November ballot. If no nominee is confirmed by November 3, 2026, the market resolves as 'Other'. None of the provided news headlines relate to this Missouri primary race. No relevant recent coverage was included. The kind of news that would matter here includes local polling, candidate endorsements from Missouri Republican figures, campaign fundraising reports, or any candidate dropping out before August 4. The market prices Rick Brattin's win at around 85%, so participants currently see this as a fairly lopsided race. At that level, the main uncertainty is not really a two-sided debate, it is simply whether something unexpected disrupts the frontrunner, such as a late-breaking controversy, a surprising surge from Burks, or a low-turnout primary where anything can happen. Primary elections in single congressional districts can be unpredictable because very few people vote, and small swings matter a lot.

The odds right now

• Rick Brattin+6.5 pts (1w)85%
• Taylor Burks-7.0 pts (1w)14%
• Brett Hueffmeier+0.3 pts (1w)3%
• Micah Beebe-0.9 pts (1w)1%
• Berton A. Knox-0.1 pts (1w)1%
• Brad Patty-1.7 pts (1w)0%

Price history

How this resolves

Resolves August 4, 2026

This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Republican Party to contest the MO-05 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. Read the full resolution rules on the live market page.

Related

Same markets. A fraction of the fee.

These apps all route to the same exchange order book. The difference is what each one adds on top of the exchange's own fee.

Published rates, checked July 2026. MetaMask charges a flat 4 percent per prediction trade. Jupiter adds a fee equal to the exchange's own taker fee at fill time, roughly 2 to 4 percent at typical odds. Where a market carries an exchange settlement fee, it applies everywhere, whichever app you use. Paridesk adds nothing on maker orders.

Trade this market on Paridesk: non-custodial, 0.5% fee.