Modi out by December 31, 2026?: how this market works

What you need to know

This market asks a simple question: will Narendra Modi stop being India's Prime Minister at any point before the end of 2026? A Yes means he leaves the job, for any reason, before that date. A No means he stays in office through December 31, 2026. It does not matter why he might leave, whether by choice, removal, or anything else. The only question is whether he holds the position continuously until the deadline. The market settles as Yes the moment Modi ceases to be Prime Minister, even if just announced but not yet official. That includes resignation, removal by political loss of support, or being permanently prevented from doing the job. If none of that happens and he is still PM on December 31, 2026, it resolves No. Official government statements are the primary source, but consistent credible news reporting can also be used to confirm the outcome. None of the recent news provided is relevant to this market. The headlines cover a mining company audit change, a Kerala sea rescue involving Chinese sailors, and a tunnel collapse in Sikkim. None of these touch on Modi's political standing or tenure. The kind of news that would matter here would be developments in Indian coalition politics, a no-confidence vote, or any credible reporting about a leadership challenge. At 8%, the market is heavily skewed toward No, meaning most participants see Modi leaving as quite unlikely before 2027. The main honest uncertainty is simply whether something unexpected happens. Modi leads a coalition government, which carries some inherent political complexity, but he has shown durable support. The real risk is an unforeseen event, health, political crisis, or coalition collapse, not a predictable challenge. For a heavily lopsided market like this, the core question is just how surprising the world decides to be.

The odds right now

• Modi out by December 31, 2026?+3.3 pts (1w)8%

Price history

How this resolves

Resolves December 31, 2026

This market will resolve to “Yes” if Narendra Modi ceases to be Prime Minister of India for any period of time between market creation and the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. Read the full resolution rules on the live market page.

Related

Same markets. A fraction of the fee.

These apps all route to the same exchange order book. The difference is what each one adds on top of the exchange's own fee.

Published rates, checked July 2026. MetaMask charges a flat 4 percent per prediction trade. Jupiter adds a fee equal to the exchange's own taker fee at fill time, roughly 2 to 4 percent at typical odds. Where a market carries an exchange settlement fee, it applies everywhere, whichever app you use. Paridesk adds nothing on maker orders.

Trade this market on Paridesk: non-custodial, 0.5% fee.