Precipitation in London in August?: how this market works

What you need to know

This market asks how much rain will fall in London during August 2026, measured at Heathrow Airport. There are three possible outcomes: under 30mm (a dry month), 40 to 50mm (around average), or 60 to 70mm (a wetter month). A 'Yes' for any bracket just means the final rainfall total lands inside that range. Think of it as picking which bucket the rain gauge ends up in by the end of summer. The UK's Met Office publishes official rainfall data for Heathrow, and that single number, rounded to one decimal place, decides everything. Whichever bracket the August 2026 total falls into wins. One edge case worth knowing: if the number lands exactly on the boundary between two brackets, the higher bracket wins. The market uses the first 'Provisional' figure released, so later revisions by the Met Office do not count. If the data is not published by November 7, 2026, another trusted source will be used instead. There is no specific recent news available for this market. For a weather market this far out, the most meaningful developments to watch for would be long-range seasonal forecasts from the Met Office or European weather agencies, especially any signals about whether summer 2026 is trending drier or wetter than normal for southern England. Weather more than a year out is genuinely very hard to forecast, and the three main brackets are each priced almost equally at around 36 to 37%, which reflects that honest uncertainty. London's August rainfall varies a lot from year to year: some years are surprisingly dry, others bring heavy summer storms. No forecast tool today can reliably pin down a single month's total that far ahead. The market is essentially a near-even three-way split, meaning participants see no strong reason to favor any one outcome yet.

The odds right now

• 40-50mm36%
• <30mm33%
• 60-70mm33%
• 30-40mm31%
• 80mm+26%
• 50-60mm26%
• 70-80mm24%

Price history

How this resolves

Resolves September 1, 2026

This market will resolve according to the total precipitation in mm at Heathrow (London Airport) in August, 2026, according to the Met Office. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. Read the full resolution rules on the live market page.

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