Precipitation in London in July?: how this market works

What you need to know

This market is asking: how much rain will fall at London Heathrow airport during the entire month of July 2026? The answer gets sorted into rainfall ranges measured in millimetres. A 'Yes' on the under-30mm bracket means London has a relatively dry July. The other brackets cover wetter outcomes. Think of it as a bet on whether London's summer stays dry or turns soggy, measured precisely by an official weather station at the airport. The market settles using the official monthly rainfall total published by the UK Met Office for Heathrow, specifically the 'rain mm' figure for July 2026 from their public climate data file. Whichever bracket that number falls into wins. One important edge case: if a number lands exactly on the boundary between two brackets, the higher (wetter) bracket wins. The first published 'Provisional' figure is used, and any later corrections do not count. If the Met Office data is not available by October 7, 2026, an alternative source will be chosen. There is no specific recent news available for this market. For a July 2026 weather question, the most relevant thing to watch for would be seasonal forecasts from the Met Office or major weather agencies as summer approaches, particularly any long-range outlooks for the UK published in late spring 2026. Weather is genuinely hard to predict more than a few days out, and this market covers an entire month that is still in the future. That said, the market currently prices the under-30mm outcome at 96%, which is a strong lean. July is historically one of London's drier months, so the historical base rate supports a dry outcome. The real uncertainty here is simply whether an unusually wet July surprises everyone, which does happen but is statistically uncommon for Heathrow in summer.

The odds right now

• <30mm+11.8 pts (1w)97%
• 40-50mm-0.4 pts (1w)2%
• 50-60mm+1.5 pts (1w)2%
• 70-80mm-4.6 pts (1w)2%
• 80mm+-4.8 pts (1w)0%
• 30-40mm-4.5 pts (1w)0%
• 60-70mm-5.7 pts (1w)0%

Price history

How this resolves

Resolves July 31, 2026

This market will resolve according to the total precipitation in mm at Heathrow (London Airport) in July, 2026, according to the Met Office. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. Read the full resolution rules on the live market page.

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