Reserve Bank of Australia Decision in September: how this market works

What you need to know

This market is asking whether Australia's central bank will change its key interest rate at its September 2026 meeting. The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) sets a 'cash rate', which is the interest rate that flows through the whole economy, affecting mortgages, savings, and business loans. A 'No change' outcome means the RBA holds steady. A 'Yes' to an increase means borrowing gets more expensive. A 'Yes' to a decrease means the RBA is trying to make borrowing cheaper and stimulate the economy. This market settles based on the official RBA announcement expected on September 29, 2026, the final day of their scheduled two-day meeting. If the RBA holds the rate steady, 'No change' wins. If they raise or cut, the corresponding option wins. One edge case worth knowing: if the meeting is cancelled or delayed past the next scheduled meeting, the market automatically resolves as 'No change', regardless of what the RBA does later. Emergency rate moves outside the formal meeting do not count. None of the provided news headlines relate to the RBA or Australian interest rates. To follow this market meaningfully, the developments worth watching would be Australian inflation data, employment figures, and any public signals from RBA board members about the direction of policy in the months leading up to September 2026. The market is heavily one-sided: around 93% probability on no change. The main uncertainty here is not really 'which way will they move' but rather whether something unexpected forces the RBA's hand. Surprises like a sudden inflation spike, a sharp economic slowdown, or a global financial shock could shift the picture. With over a year still to go before the meeting, a lot can change in the economy. The further out a deadline is, the more room there is for the unexpected.

The odds right now

• No change93%
• 25 bps increase5%
• 25 bps decrease3%
• 50+ bps increase0%
• 50+ bps decrease0%

Price history

How this resolves

Resolves September 29, 2026

This market will resolve according to the change in basis points in the cash rate target resulting from the September 2026 meeting of the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) Monetary Policy Board, relative to the level it was prior to this meeting. The resolution source will be official information from the Reserve Bank of Australia, including the statement or release from its September 2026 meeting, scheduled for September 28-29, 2026, as listed on the official RBA calendar (https://www.rba.gov.au/schedules-events/calendar/?topics=monetary-policy-board). Read the full resolution rules on the live market page.

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