South Carolina Senate Special Republican Primary: First Round Second Place: how this market works

What you need to know

This market is asking who finishes in second place, not first, in the first round of the Republican primary for a U.S. Senate seat in South Carolina. It is a special election because the seat became vacant before the normal election cycle. A Yes for any candidate here means they came in second by vote count on August 11, 2026. The market currently puts Ralph Norman as the most likely second-place finisher, with Russell Fry and Darline Graham Nordone also in the picture. Whoever receives the second-highest number of votes in the August 11, 2026 Republican primary wins this market. The official results from the South Carolina Election Commission are the primary source, though a clear consensus from credible news outlets can also be used. If two candidates tie for second place, the tiebreaker is alphabetical order by first name. If results are not confirmed by December 31, 2026, the market settles as 'Other', which would be a surprising outcome but is worth knowing about. None of the provided recent headlines relate to this South Carolina Senate race. There is no relevant recent news to point to here. The kinds of developments worth watching would be candidate endorsements, polling from South Carolina, campaign fundraising reports, or any candidate dropping out of the race before August 11. The second-place finish is genuinely hard to call because it depends on two things at once: how well Ralph Norman does overall, and how closely Russell Fry and Darline Graham Nordone compete with each other. If Norman wins first place comfortably, the real contest is between Fry and Nordone for second. The race is still over a year away, no polling data was provided, and voter turnout in special primaries can be unpredictable. A lot can shift before August 2026.

The odds right now

• Ralph Norman51%
• Russell Fry26%
• Darline Graham Nordone17%
• Mark Lynch4%
• Mark Sanford1%
• Duke Buckner0%
• Trey Gowdy0%
• Sheri Biggs0%
• Henry McMaster0%
• Pamela Evette0%

Price history

How this resolves

Resolves August 11, 2026

The first round of the 2026 special Republican Party primary for the United States Senate election in South Carolina will be held on August 11, 2026, with a potential runoff on August 25, 2026. This market will resolve according to the candidate that wins the second-most votes in the first round of the special Republican Primary for US Senator from South Carolina. Read the full resolution rules on the live market page.

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