What will S&P 500 (SPX) hit by end of December?: how this market works

What you need to know

This market asks whether the S&P 500 stock index will touch certain price levels at any point between now and the last trading day of December 2026. The S&P 500 is a number that represents the combined value of 500 large US companies, and it moves up and down every trading day. There are multiple price targets here: the upside targets ($7,800 and $8,200) ask if the index climbs that high, while the downside target ($6,200) asks if it drops that low. Each price target resolves independently, and the bar is low: the index just needs to touch that level for even one minute during regular trading hours, on any day before December 31, 2026. For the upside targets, the high price of any single minute needs to reach the listed number. For the downside target ($6,200), the low price of any single minute needs to hit or fall below it. The data source is Yahoo Finance's 1-minute chart. It does not need to close at that level, just briefly touch it. No specific recent news was provided for this market. The kinds of developments worth watching include US economic data like inflation reports and jobs numbers, Federal Reserve interest rate decisions, corporate earnings seasons, and any major geopolitical events that could shake investor confidence in large US companies. Eighteen months is a long time in financial markets, and a lot can change. The S&P 500 could be pushed higher by strong corporate profits or lower interest rates, or pulled down by a recession, a financial crisis, or unexpected global events. The market currently prices the $7,800 upside target at 68%, reflecting more confidence it gets there than not, while $8,200 sits at 28% and the $6,200 downside sits at 31%. Still, history shows that even well-priced forecasts over this time horizon carry real uncertainty.

The odds right now

• ↑ $7,800-3.5 pts (1w)68%
• ↓ $6,200+3.3 pts (1w)30%
• ↑ $8,200+1.5 pts (1w)27%
• ↓ $5,800+5.0 pts (1w)22%
• ↓ $5,200+0.5 pts (1w)11%
• ↑ $8,600-4.0 pts (1w)10%
• ↓ $4,500-0.5 pts (1w)6%
• ↑ $9,300-0.1 pts (1w)5%

Price history

How this resolves

Resolves December 31, 2026

This market will resolve to "Yes" if, at any point between market creation and market close on the final day of trading for December 2026, any 1-minute candle for S&P 500 (SPX) shows a final "High" price equal to or above the listed price. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No." All prices recorded during regular trading hours of the primary exchange for the instrument, as reflected in Yahoo Finance's 1-minute interval ("1m") data, will be considered. Read the full resolution rules on the live market page.

Related

Same markets. A fraction of the fee.

These apps all route to the same exchange order book. The difference is what each one adds on top of the exchange's own fee.

Published rates, checked July 2026. MetaMask charges a flat 4 percent per prediction trade. Jupiter adds a fee equal to the exchange's own taker fee at fill time, roughly 2 to 4 percent at typical odds. Where a market carries an exchange settlement fee, it applies everywhere, whichever app you use. Paridesk adds nothing on maker orders.

Trade this market on Paridesk: non-custodial, 0.5% fee.