S&P 500 (SPY) closes above ___ on July 21?: how this market works

What you need to know

This market asks whether SPY, the most widely followed exchange-traded fund that tracks the S&P 500 index, will close above a specific dollar price on July 21, 2026. SPY is essentially a single share price that mirrors how the broad US stock market is doing. A Yes outcome means the market ends that day higher than the threshold; a No means it finishes at or below it. Three separate price thresholds are listed: $725, $730, and $735, each as its own Yes or No question. Settlement is simple: whatever price SPY closes at during regular trading hours on July 21, 2026 gets compared to the listed threshold. That closing price comes from Pyth, a data service, using the last one-minute candle of the regular session. If SPY closes even one cent above the threshold, it resolves Yes. At or below resolves No. If July 21 happens to fall on a non-trading day, or SPY does not trade at all that session, the market resolves 50-50 rather than Yes or No. No relevant recent news was provided for this market. For a question like this, the developments worth watching would be major shifts in US economic data, Federal Reserve interest rate decisions, corporate earnings seasons, or any large geopolitical events that could move equity markets significantly between now and July 2026. The market prices all three thresholds above 97%, meaning participants collectively see a very high chance SPY will be above $735 by July 2026. At that confidence level, the real question is not which direction is more likely, it is simply whether something unexpected derails it: a sharp recession, a financial crisis, a major geopolitical shock, or an extended market correction. A year is a long time, and stock markets can move dramatically. The high probability reflects current sentiment, not certainty.

The odds right now

• $725100%
• $72098%
• $73598%
• $73098%
• $74098%
• $74589%
• $75017%
• $7553%
• $7601%
• $7651%
• $7700%

Price history

How this resolves

Resolves July 21, 2026

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Close price for S&P 500 (SPY) on July 21, 2026 is higher than the listed price. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No." If the two specified prices are exactly equal, this market will resolve to "No". Read the full resolution rules on the live market page.

Related

Same markets. A fraction of the fee.

These apps all route to the same exchange order book. The difference is what each one adds on top of the exchange's own fee.

Published rates, checked July 2026. MetaMask charges a flat 4 percent per prediction trade. Jupiter adds a fee equal to the exchange's own taker fee at fill time, roughly 2 to 4 percent at typical odds. Where a market carries an exchange settlement fee, it applies everywhere, whichever app you use. Paridesk adds nothing on maker orders.

Trade this market on Paridesk: non-custodial, 0.5% fee.