S&P 500 (SPY) closes above ___ on July 22?: how this market works

What you need to know

This market asks whether SPY, the most widely tracked U.S. stock market fund, will be trading at a higher price on July 22, 2026 than it is today. SPY tracks the S&P 500 index, which covers 500 large American companies, so this is really a question about the broad health of the U.S. stock market over the next year or so. A Yes means stocks are higher than the target price on that date. A No means they are at or below it. The market settles based on SPY's official closing price on July 22, 2026, pulled from a data service called Pyth. If that closing price is strictly above the listed target, it resolves Yes. If it equals or is below the target, it resolves No. One edge case worth knowing: if July 22, 2026 falls on a weekend or holiday with no trading, the market resolves 50-50 instead of Yes or No. A stock split would trigger a proportional adjustment to the target price. No specific recent news was provided for this market. In general, the things to watch over a one-year horizon would be U.S. economic data, Federal Reserve interest rate decisions, corporate earnings trends, and any major geopolitical or financial shocks. Those are the kinds of developments that tend to move the S&P 500 meaningfully over multi-month periods. The market currently prices all three thresholds at 98-99%, meaning participants see the bar as very low relative to where SPY trades today. The main real uncertainty here is not a close call between two sides. It is simply whether something unexpected and significant hits the market hard enough to push SPY below these levels by July 2026. Recessions, financial crises, or major geopolitical shocks are rare but real, and a year is long enough for surprises to occur.

The odds right now

• $730100%
• $720100%
• $72598%
• $73598%
• $74098%
• $74597%
• $75048%
• $7552%
• $7601%
• $7700%
• $7650%

Price history

How this resolves

Resolves July 22, 2026

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Close price for S&P 500 (SPY) on July 22, 2026 is higher than the listed price. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No." If the two specified prices are exactly equal, this market will resolve to "No". Read the full resolution rules on the live market page.

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