S&P 500 (SPY) closes above ___ on July 23?: how this market works

What you need to know

This market asks whether the SPY exchange-traded fund, which tracks the S&P 500 index, will close above a specific price level on July 23, 2026. SPY is basically a stock you can buy that moves with the overall US stock market, so this is really a question about where the broad US market sits on that single day. A Yes means the market closed higher than the listed number; a No means it closed at or below it. Settlement is straightforward: whatever price SPY officially closes at on July 23, 2026 gets compared to the listed threshold. The price comes from a data service called Pyth, using the final minute of the regular trading session. If SPY closes even one cent above the number, it resolves Yes. If it closes exactly at the number, it resolves No. One edge case worth knowing: if July 23 turns out to be a non-trading day, the market resolves 50-50 rather than Yes or No. No relevant recent news was provided for this market. The kind of developments worth watching would be major shifts in US economic data, Federal Reserve interest rate decisions, or significant geopolitical events, since those tend to move the broad stock market meaningfully over a multi-month horizon. The market prices all three thresholds around 98%, meaning participants collectively see a very high chance SPY will be above these levels by July 2026. The main uncertainty at that probability is simply whether something unexpected, like a sharp recession, a financial crisis, or a major geopolitical shock, pushes the market down significantly from current levels. The question is not really a close call; it is a question of whether a low-probability but high-impact event occurs before the deadline.

The odds right now

• $715100%
• $73099%
• $72598%
• $72098%
• $73589%
• $74029%
• $7502%
• $7452%
• $7550%
• $7650%
• $7600%

Price history

How this resolves

Resolves July 23, 2026

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Close price for S&P 500 (SPY) on July 23, 2026 is higher than the listed price. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No." If the two specified prices are exactly equal, this market will resolve to "No". Read the full resolution rules on the live market page.

Related

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