Starbucks (SBUX) Q3 global comparable store sales growth?: how this market works

What you need to know

This market asks how much Starbucks' sales grew at its existing stores globally during its third fiscal quarter, compared to the same period a year earlier. This number, called "comparable store sales growth" (or "comps"), measures only stores that were already open, so it shows whether people are buying more, not just whether Starbucks opened new locations. The three brackets are: moderate growth of 3-5%, solid growth of 5-7%, or strong growth of 7-9%. A Yes on any bracket means the final reported number lands in that range. When Starbucks publishes its official Q3 fiscal 2026 earnings report, the market settles based on the exact global comparable store sales growth figure in those materials. The first reported number counts, even if Starbucks later revises it. If the number falls exactly on a bracket boundary, say precisely 7%, it counts as the higher bracket (7-9%). If Starbucks never releases earnings before September 30, 2026, or leaves out this specific metric entirely, the market automatically resolves to the lowest bracket, which is 3-5%. The provided news does not include anything directly about Starbucks or its sales performance. The headlines cover a stock market rally and an unrelated oil and gas company. There is no Starbucks-specific news to report here. The kind of development worth watching for would be Starbucks' own earnings release, any guidance updates from management, or reports on consumer spending trends at coffee and restaurant chains. The market is split mainly between two brackets: 5-7% at 55% and 7-9% at 41%, with very little weight on the lowest range. So the real question participants are wrestling with is whether Starbucks' recovery under its current leadership is strong enough to hit the higher end. Factors that are genuinely hard to know include consumer spending habits globally, how Starbucks is performing in China specifically, and whether any broader economic slowdown affects café visits. Small differences in execution or timing can push the final number across a bracket boundary.

The odds right now

• 5%-7%55%
• 7%-9%38%
• 3%-5%9%
• 9%+3%
• <3%2%

Price history

How this resolves

Resolves August 4, 2026

This market will resolve according to Starbucks' global comparable store sales growth (year-over-year) for the upcoming third fiscal quarter, as reported in its official company earnings materials. The specified metric will be considered as reported in the company's official earnings materials. Read the full resolution rules on the live market page.

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