Trump meets with Putin by...?: how this market works

What you need to know

This market asks whether Donald Trump and Vladimir Putin will actually meet face-to-face before a specific date. A Yes means the two leaders physically interact, shake hands, exchange words, or have a direct conversation in person. A No means that never happens by the deadline. There are two versions of this question with different deadlines: one ending September 30, 2026 (currently at 9% odds), and one ending December 31, 2026 (currently at 30% odds). The market settles Yes the moment credible news reporting confirms that Trump and Putin met in person and directly interacted, whether that is a formal summit, a sideline conversation at an international event, or even a handshake with words exchanged. The key bar is direct personal interaction, not just being in the same building or room. If no such meeting happens before 11:59 PM ET on the listed date, it resolves No. Multiple news outlets would need to agree on the meeting for it to count. None of the recent news provided directly relates to a Trump-Putin meeting. The headlines cover US strikes on Iranian targets, Canada-US trade tensions, and other topics. Notably, the US-Iran military activity could be worth watching as a background factor, since major geopolitical conflicts sometimes accelerate or complicate diplomacy between other world leaders, but there is no direct reporting here about a Trump-Putin meeting being planned. The core difficulty is that high-level diplomatic meetings between leaders of rival powers depend on many things no one fully controls: war in Ukraine, domestic politics in both countries, third-party diplomacy, and whether either side sees a political reason to meet. The September deadline sits at just 9%, reflecting how little time remains. The December deadline is at 30%, meaning the market sees it as possible but far from certain. The biggest unknowns are whether peace talks gain traction and whether both sides find a moment that works politically.

The odds right now

• December 31+2.5 pts (1w)30%
• September 30+2.0 pts (1w)9%

Price history

How this resolves

Resolves December 31, 2026

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Donald Trump meets with Vladimir Putin between market creation and the listed date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Read the full resolution rules on the live market page.

Related

Same markets. A fraction of the fee.

These apps all route to the same exchange order book. The difference is what each one adds on top of the exchange's own fee.

Published rates, checked July 2026. MetaMask charges a flat 4 percent per prediction trade. Jupiter adds a fee equal to the exchange's own taker fee at fill time, roughly 2 to 4 percent at typical odds. Where a market carries an exchange settlement fee, it applies everywhere, whichever app you use. Paridesk adds nothing on maker orders.

Trade this market on Paridesk: non-custodial, 0.5% fee.