Putin out as President of Russia by...?: how this market works

What you need to know

This market asks whether Vladimir Putin will stop being Russia's president at any point before the deadline, for any reason. A Yes means Putin is gone from the presidency, whether through resignation, removal, death, a coup, or being physically prevented from doing the job. A No means he remains in power through the deadline. The three dates in the odds are separate versions of the same question, each with a different cutoff: sooner dates are harder to reach, so they carry lower odds. The market settles Yes the moment Putin ceases to be president, even temporarily, within the timeframe. Critically, just an announcement of his resignation or removal is enough to trigger Yes immediately, even if the actual handover has not happened yet. If he is detained or effectively blocked from his duties, that also counts. The source is official Russian government information, but a strong consensus of credible international reporting can be used too. If none of that happens, it resolves No on the deadline date. The recent headlines are about the war in Ukraine, including Ukrainian strikes on targets in the Caspian Sea and Russian-held territory, and rising tensions involving Iran. None of these headlines directly concern Putin's hold on power or any leadership crisis inside Russia. What would actually matter here is news about internal Russian political instability, a serious health event involving Putin, elite defections, or a military challenge to his authority. Putin has held power for over two decades and has survived crises, including the 2023 Wagner mutiny, without losing his position. The market prices the June 2027 version at only 16%, reflecting how rarely leaders in his position fall on a short timeline. The real difficulty is that the scenarios that would cause a Yes, such as sudden illness, an internal coup, or a dramatic military collapse, are almost impossible to forecast in advance. Low probability does not mean impossible, just that the market sees it as unlikely.

The odds right now

• June 30, 2027-0.5 pts (1w)16%
• December 31, 20269%
• September 30, 2026+0.4 pts (1w)4%
• August 31, 2026-0.4 pts (1w)2%
• July 31, 2026-0.3 pts (1w)0%

Price history

How this resolves

Resolves June 30, 2027

This market will resolve to “Yes” if Vladimir Putin ceases to be President of Russia for any period of time between market creation and the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. Read the full resolution rules on the live market page.

Related

Same markets. A fraction of the fee.

These apps all route to the same exchange order book. The difference is what each one adds on top of the exchange's own fee.

Published rates, checked July 2026. MetaMask charges a flat 4 percent per prediction trade. Jupiter adds a fee equal to the exchange's own taker fee at fill time, roughly 2 to 4 percent at typical odds. Where a market carries an exchange settlement fee, it applies everywhere, whichever app you use. Paridesk adds nothing on maker orders.

Trade this market on Paridesk: non-custodial, 0.5% fee.