TX-05 House Election Winner: how this market works

What you need to know

This market asks which party will win the TX-05 congressional seat in the 2026 midterm elections. TX-05 is a U.S. House district in Texas. A Yes for Republicans means a Republican candidate wins that seat; a Yes for Democrats means a Democrat wins it. The market is not about a specific candidate by name, just the party that takes the district. The market settles based on who wins the TX-05 race on November 3, 2026. The winner's party is determined by how they appear on the ballot. If a winner runs without a clear party label, their most recently stated intention to caucus with Republicans or Democrats decides it. The final source of truth is credible news reporting, with the Federal Election Commission's official results as the backup if there is any dispute. None of the recent news provided relates directly to TX-05 or this congressional race. The headlines cover U.S.-Iran diplomacy and an unrelated White House order about the Smithsonian. If you want to follow this race, the kinds of developments worth watching would be candidate announcements, primary results, and any major shift in Texas political conditions. This market is heavily one-sided: the market currently prices a Republican win at around 92%. TX-05 is a historically deep-red district in Texas, which explains that lean. The real uncertainty here is not a close competition between two equal sides. It is simply whether something unexpected happens, such as a strong independent candidate, a major local scandal, or an unusually favorable national environment for Democrats in 2026. Those scenarios are possible but the market treats them as unlikely.

The odds right now

• Republican Party+2.0 pts (1w)92%
• Democratic Party-2.0 pts (1w)8%

Price history

How this resolves

Resolves November 3, 2026

This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the TX-05 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. Read the full resolution rules on the live market page.

Related

Same markets. A fraction of the fee.

These apps all route to the same exchange order book. The difference is what each one adds on top of the exchange's own fee.

Published rates, checked July 2026. MetaMask charges a flat 4 percent per prediction trade. Jupiter adds a fee equal to the exchange's own taker fee at fill time, roughly 2 to 4 percent at typical odds. Where a market carries an exchange settlement fee, it applies everywhere, whichever app you use. Paridesk adds nothing on maker orders.

Trade this market on Paridesk: non-custodial, 0.5% fee.