UK GDP growth in Q2 2026 (QoQ)?: how this market works

What you need to know

This market is asking how fast the UK economy grew in the spring of 2026, specifically April through June, compared to the three months before that. GDP, or gross domestic product, is the total value of everything the country produces and earns. A result of 0.2, 0.3% means the economy grew a little. A result of 0.0, 0.1% means it barely moved. A result of 0.4, 0.5% means it had a noticeably stronger quarter. The market settles on August 12, 2026, when the UK's Office for National Statistics publishes its second quarterly estimate of GDP for Q2 2026. Whatever single rounded number appears in that report, to one decimal place, decides the outcome. If the number later gets revised, that does not change anything here: only the figure in the initial August 12 release counts. If that report is delayed beyond schedule, the most recent available quarter's data is used instead. None of the recent news provided is relevant to UK GDP. The headlines all relate to India. There is no UK economic data to point to here. The kind of news that would matter for this market includes UK retail sales figures, monthly GDP estimates from the ONS, inflation data, or any major policy changes from the Bank of England that could affect economic activity during Q2 2026. UK GDP is genuinely hard to forecast because it depends on many things moving at once: consumer spending, business investment, trade, and government activity. The market currently leans toward modest growth of 0.2, 0.3%, but a 15% chance is still placed on near-zero growth. Global trade conditions, any surprises in interest rate policy, or a sudden shift in consumer confidence could push the number in either direction. Rounding to one decimal place also means a small real-world difference can shift the result between categories.

The odds right now

• 0.2–0.3%-24.0 pts (1w)44%
• 0.4–0.5%+6.0 pts (1w)25%
• 0.0–0.1%-10.1 pts (1w)13%
• Negative-0.1 pts (1w)8%
• 0.6–0.7%-0.9 pts (1w)3%
• 1.0%+-0.5 pts (1w)0%
• 0.8–0.9%0%

Price history

How this resolves

Resolves August 12, 2026

This market will resolve according to the UK real gross domestic product (GDP) growth rate (% change) for Q2 of 2026 compared with the most recent quarter (quarter-on-previous-quarter) in the "GDP Second quarterly estimate, UK" release for Q2 of 2026, scheduled for August 12, 2026. The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/grossdomesticproductgdp/bulletins/gdpfirstquarterlyestimateuk/previousreleases If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter. Read the full resolution rules on the live market page.

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