U.K. Annual Inflation 2026: how this market works

What you need to know

This market is asking: when the U.K. government measures how much prices rose across 2026, which range will that number fall into? The Consumer Price Index, or CPI, is a standard measure of how expensive everyday things have become, from food to rent to clothing. A reading of 2.5, 2.9% means prices were only a little higher than the year before. A reading of 4.0, 4.4% means prices rose quite a bit more, putting more strain on household budgets. This market settles based on one specific number: the official U.K. CPI figure for December 2026, published by the Office for National Statistics on January 20, 2027. The ONS reports this number to one decimal place, so a reading like 3.7% would fall into the 3.5, 3.9% bracket. Whichever bracket that single rounded number lands in wins. One small edge case: if the December report is delayed, the market uses the most recent available monthly data instead. None of the provided news headlines relate to U.K. inflation in 2026. The stories are about U.S. economic conditions and Indian monetary policy, which are separate topics. For this market, the developments worth watching would be U.K.-specific: Bank of England interest rate decisions, domestic energy prices, wage growth figures, and any major shifts in U.K. government spending or trade conditions. Inflation is genuinely hard to forecast a year or more out, because so many things can shift it: energy prices, global supply chains, wage negotiations, government policy, and unexpected events like extreme weather or geopolitical shocks. The market currently spreads probability across multiple ranges, with 2.5, 2.9% and 3.5, 3.9% both carrying significant weight, reflecting real disagreement. That spread tells you experts and participants are not confident, and the honest answer is that many meaningful inputs simply have not happened yet.

The odds right now

• 2.5–2.9%+6.9 pts (1w)29%
• 3.5–3.9%-10.5 pts (1w)23%
• 4.0-4.4%+2.5 pts (1w)12%
• 4.5%++1.0 pts (1w)8%
• 2.0–2.4%-0.1 pts (1w)2%
• 1.5–1.9%1%
• 1.0–1.4%-0.1 pts (1w)1%
• <1.0%0%

Price history

How this resolves

Resolves January 20, 2027

This is a market about the variation of consumer prices in the U.K. over the 12-month period ending December 2026, before seasonal adjustment, as reported by the Office for National Statistics (ONS). Read the full resolution rules on the live market page.

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