Vote winner in Alaska Senate primary final round?: how this market works

What you need to know

This market asks who will get the most votes in Alaska's 2026 U.S. Senate primary election. Alaska holds a single open primary where all candidates from all parties run together, and the top vote-getter wins that round. A Yes for Mary Peltola means she finishes first in that primary. A Yes for Dan Sullivan means he does. The primary winner is not yet the Senator, just the leader heading into the general election in November 2026. The market settles on whichever named candidate receives the most votes in the final reported round of the Alaska Senate primary, scheduled for August 18, 2026. The official source is Alaska's Division of Elections, confirmed by credible news reporting. If results are not clearly known by December 31, 2026, the market resolves to 'Other' instead. One edge case worth noting: if two candidates tie on votes, the tiebreaker is alphabetical order by last name, which is unusual but spelled out clearly. None of the provided news headlines relate to this Alaska Senate race. There is no relevant recent news to point to here. The kind of developments worth watching would be new candidate announcements, polling out of Alaska, campaign fundraising reports, or any changes to the primary rules or date. The main uncertainty here is that primary elections are genuinely hard to forecast, especially more than a year out. Alaska's open primary system can produce surprising results because voters from all parties participate together. The market currently prices Peltola around 78%, reflecting her as a strong favorite, but primaries have lower turnout and can swing based on candidate organization and late momentum. Sullivan is a sitting senator and a serious candidate. The biggest unknown is simply how Alaska voters sort themselves when the ballot is in hand.

The odds right now

• Mary Peltola+11.5 pts (1w)79%
• Sen. Dan S. Sullivan-9.3 pts (1w)23%
• Richard Grayson2%
• Earl D. "Skip" Southworth-2.2 pts (1w)1%
• Richard Benedict Mayers1%
• Heather McElwain-0.2 pts (1w)1%
• Shirley Saucerman-0.1 pts (1w)1%
• Scott Kohlhaas0%
• Dustin Darden-0.1 pts (1w)0%
• Fred C. Grauberger-0.1 pts (1w)0%
• Dan J. Sullivan-0.1 pts (1w)0%
• David Leslie-2.9 pts (1w)0%

Price history

How this resolves

Resolves November 3, 2026

This market will resolve according to the winner of most votes in the final reported round of the 2026 midterm Alaska U.S. Senate primary election, inclusive of any run-offs, currently scheduled for August 18, 2026. Read the full resolution rules on the live market page.

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