What price will Bitcoin hit on August 3?: how this market works

What you need to know

This market is asking whether Bitcoin's price will touch a specific dollar level at any point during August 3, 2026. There are three separate price targets being tracked: $62,000 (a 'down to' target), $64,000 (an 'up to' target), and $61,000 (another 'down to' target). Each one is its own Yes or No question: did Bitcoin's price touch that exact level or cross it during that single day? Each price target resolves Yes if, at any single minute on August 3 (midnight to 11:59 PM Eastern Time), Bitcoin's recorded high or low on the Binance BTC/USDT chart touches or crosses that level. It only takes one minute out of 1,440 for it to count. Prices from other exchanges like Coinbase or Kraken do not count, and neither do other trading pairs. If Bitcoin never reaches the target level that day, it resolves No. One headline stands out: a report from August 3 describes roughly $86 million in Bitcoin being stolen from Coldcard hardware wallets, with the company halting shipments. A security breach of that scale can shake market confidence and move prices quickly, which is directly relevant to where Bitcoin trades on that same day. The other headlines cover unrelated topics and do not appear to affect Bitcoin's price on August 3. Bitcoin can move thousands of dollars in a single day, so even a price target that seems close in the morning can be missed or hit by evening. The Coldcard theft news adds a real wild card: security incidents can trigger sharp sell-offs or panic buying, making the day's range harder than usual to predict. The market prices the $62,000 downside target as most likely at 42%, but crypto prices are notoriously sensitive to sudden news, and one headline can change everything fast.

The odds right now

• ↓ 62,00054%
• ↑ 64,00019%
• ↓ 61,00014%
• ↓ 60,0004%
• ↑ 65,0003%
• ↓ 59,0001%
• ↑ 67,0000%
• ↓ 58,0000%
• ↓ 57,0000%
• ↓ 55,0000%
• ↑ 69,0000%
• ↑ 66,0000%

Price history

How this resolves

Resolves August 4, 2026

This market will immediately resolve to "Yes" if any Binance 1 minute candle for Bitcoin (BTC/USDT) on the date specified in the title, between 12:00 AM ET and 11:59 PM ET has a final "Low" price equal to or lower than the price specified in the title. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No." The resolution source for this market is Binance, specifically the BTC/USDT "Low" prices available at https://www.binance.com/en/trade/BTC_USDT, with the chart settings on "1m" for one-minute candles selected on the top bar. Read the full resolution rules on the live market page.

Related

Same markets. A fraction of the fee.

These apps all route to the same exchange order book. The difference is what each one adds on top of the exchange's own fee.

Published rates, checked July 2026. MetaMask charges a flat 4 percent per prediction trade. Jupiter adds a fee equal to the exchange's own taker fee at fill time, roughly 2 to 4 percent at typical odds. Where a market carries an exchange settlement fee, it applies everywhere, whichever app you use. Paridesk adds nothing on maker orders.

Trade this market on Paridesk: non-custodial, 0.5% fee.