What will Trump say during his Executive Order signing?: how this market works

What you need to know

This market is asking whether Trump will say specific words or phrases out loud during one particular scheduled event: an Executive Order signing on August 3, 2026, at 1:30 PM ET. There are three separate word categories being tracked: "Oil / Gas / Gasoline", "Biden / Obama", and "Election". Each one is its own Yes or No question. A Yes means Trump spoke that word or phrase during the signing. A No means he did not say it at all during that event. Each category resolves Yes if the listed term is heard in the audio or video of that specific 1:30 PM ET signing event. Only that event counts. Anything Trump says at a different speech or event the same day does not qualify. If the event is cancelled or no recording is available by 11:59 PM ET on August 4, 2026, then a special bracket called "No Qualifying Event" resolves Yes and all word categories resolve No. The resolution source is the actual audio or video recording of the signing. None of the recent headlines provided appear directly connected to the content of this specific Executive Order signing or what topic the order covers. That matters because the subject of the order would be the biggest clue about which words Trump is likely to use. Without knowing what the order is about, there is no strong news signal to point to here. The most useful thing to watch for would be reporting on what the order actually covers. The central difficulty is that Trump's exact wording during a signing is genuinely unpredictable, even when the topic is known. He often speaks off-script, brings up unrelated subjects, or keeps remarks very brief. The market prices "Oil / Gas / Gasoline" and "Biden / Obama" both quite high, above 75%, reflecting that Trump mentions these topics frequently. But "frequent" is not the same as "certain at this specific event". The unknown topic of the order, and the possibility of a very short or cancelled event, are real sources of uncertainty.

The odds right now

• Biden / Obama86%
• Election81%
• Oil / Gas / Gasoline76%
• Democrat51%
• Peace50%
• Cheat / Cheater / Cheating50%
• Corrupt / Corruption36%
• Obliterated / Obliteration36%
• Stock Market36%
• Tariff35%
• Hell35%
• Communist / Communism30%

Price history

How this resolves

Resolves August 3, 2026

Donald Trump is scheduled to sign an Executive order on August 3, 2026, at 1:30 PM ET. (https://rollcall.com/factbase/trump/calendar/). Read the full resolution rules on the live market page.

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