What will Trump say during his Executive Order signing?
Biden / Obama
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Understand this market
This market is asking whether Trump will say specific words or phrases out loud during one particular scheduled event: an Executive Order signing on August 3, 2026, at 1:30 PM ET. There are three separate word categories being tracked: "Oil / Gas / Gasoline", "Biden / Obama", and "Election". Each one is its own Yes or No question. A Yes means Trump spoke that word or phrase during the signing. A No means he did not say it at all during that event.
Each category resolves Yes if the listed term is heard in the audio or video of that specific 1:30 PM ET signing event. Only that event counts. Anything Trump says at a different speech or event the same day does not qualify. If the event is cancelled or no recording is available by 11:59 PM ET on August 4, 2026, then a special bracket called "No Qualifying Event" resolves Yes and all word categories resolve No. The resolution source is the actual audio or video recording of the signing.
None of the recent headlines provided appear directly connected to the content of this specific Executive Order signing or what topic the order covers. That matters because the subject of the order would be the biggest clue about which words Trump is likely to use. Without knowing what the order is about, there is no strong news signal to point to here. The most useful thing to watch for would be reporting on what the order actually covers.
The central difficulty is that Trump's exact wording during a signing is genuinely unpredictable, even when the topic is known. He often speaks off-script, brings up unrelated subjects, or keeps remarks very brief. The market prices "Oil / Gas / Gasoline" and "Biden / Obama" both quite high, above 75%, reflecting that Trump mentions these topics frequently. But "frequent" is not the same as "certain at this specific event". The unknown topic of the order, and the possibility of a very short or cancelled event, are real sources of uncertainty.
Order Book
Biden / Obama
Resolution Criteria
Donald Trump is scheduled to sign an Executive order on August 3, 2026, at 1:30 PM ET. (https://rollcall.com/factbase/trump/calendar/). This market will resolve to "Yes" if Donald Trump says the listed term during the specified appearance. Otherwise, the market will resolve to "No". This market is explicitly about the event titled "The President signs an Executive Order" scheduled for 1:30 PM ET (https://rollcall.com/factbase/trump/calendar/). Speeches, events, or comments that occur outside of the named, scheduled event will not qualify toward this market's resolution. If this event is definitively cancelled, or otherwise is not available by August 4, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, "-No Qualifying Event-" will resolve to "Yes" and all other brackets will resolve to "No". The resolution source will be audio/video of the event. For full rules, see: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/market_products/Event+Mentions+Contract+DeFi.pdf
Read the full market guide →Biden / Obama
86%