Which countries will recognize Israel by December 31?: how this market works

What you need to know

This market asks whether Venezuela, Lebanon, or Saudi Arabia will formally recognize Israel as a legitimate state before the end of 2026. Right now, none of these three countries officially recognizes Israel. A 'Yes' for any of them would mean that country's government takes the concrete diplomatic step of acknowledging Israel's existence as a state, opening the door to formal relations. A 'No' means things stay as they are, with no such recognition given. For any country to resolve 'Yes', its government must issue an official, formal recognition of Israel, not just hint at it or announce plans to consider it. A speech, a rumor, or a letter of intent does not count. The deadline is December 31, 2026 at 11:59 PM Eastern Time. The market will use official government sources first, and credible news reporting as a backup, to confirm whether that formal step actually happened. None of the provided news headlines relate directly to Israel recognition talks with Venezuela, Lebanon, or Saudi Arabia. One headline mentions Houthi attacks on Saudi oil tankers amid US-Iran tensions, which is relevant background: ongoing regional conflict tends to make diplomatic shifts toward Israel harder, not easier. That kind of news is worth watching as context, but no concrete recognition developments appear in what was shared. Each country faces very different obstacles, which makes these hard to predict. Saudi Arabia is seen as the highest-profile possibility but has tied recognition to Palestinian statehood, and regional violence keeps that conversation frozen. Lebanon has deep internal divisions and Hezbollah's strong influence. Venezuela's relationship with Israel has been hostile for years. Political conditions in all three can shift quickly or not at all. The relatively low odds across all three reflect genuine doubt, not just caution.

The odds right now

• Venezuela+3.5 pts (1w)28%
• Lebanon+2.0 pts (1w)26%
• Saudi Arabia+5.5 pts (1w)12%
• Indonesia+4.0 pts (1w)12%
• Syria11%
• Cuba9%
• Kuwait+0.5 pts (1w)8%
• Bangladesh7%
• Tunisia+0.5 pts (1w)6%
• Pakistan6%
• Iran-0.1 pts (1w)5%
• North Korea+1.8 pts (1w)4%

Price history

How this resolves

Resolves December 31, 2026

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed country officially recognizes Israel as a state between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. Read the full resolution rules on the live market page.

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