Who will Trump publicly insult by July 31?: how this market works

What you need to know

This market asks whether Trump will publicly insult one or more of three specific people, Emmanuel Macron, Jerome Powell, or Zohran Mamdani, before July 31, 2026. A 'Yes' means Trump said something genuinely personal and cutting about that person, like calling them weak, stupid, or using a mocking nickname. A 'No' means he either said nothing negative about them, or only criticized their policies without making it personal. Each person resolves Yes if Trump makes any public statement that personally attacks them in a clearly negative way, spoken, written, or recorded, before July 31, 2026 Eastern Time. The key line is personal versus policy: calling Powell 'an idiot' counts, but saying 'Powell isn't making smart rate decisions' does not. Trump does not need to name the person directly, as long as context makes clear who he means. The market judges this based on Trump's own public statements. The provided news headlines do not contain anything directly relevant to Trump insulting Macron, Powell, or Mamdani. No relevant developments stand out from what was shared. The kind of news that would matter here includes Trump press conferences, social media posts, or rally speeches where he comments on any of these three individuals by name or clear implication. Trump's public statements are frequent and often unpredictable, which cuts both ways. He has a well-documented history of personal attacks on political figures, including Powell specifically, which is likely why these three appear on the list. But the criteria require a clearly personal insult, not just criticism, so borderline statements create real judgment calls. The odds across all three are below 50%, meaning the market as a whole leans toward each individual not being insulted, though collectively at least one seems more probable than not.

The odds right now

• Emmanuel Macron+38.5 pts (1w)49%
• Jerome Powell-9.5 pts (1w)37%
• Zohran Mamdani+7.0 pts (1w)32%
• Marjorie Taylor Greene-5.0 pts (1w)14%
• Freidrich Merz-2.0 pts (1w)11%
• Vladimir Putin+1.1 pts (1w)10%
• Benjamin Netanyahu-1.0 pts (1w)9%
• Megyn Kelly8%
• Candace Owens8%
• Keir Starmer-5.5 pts (1w)8%
• Tucker Carlson8%
• Alex Jones-0.5 pts (1w)8%

Price history

How this resolves

Resolves July 31, 2026

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Donald Trump makes any public statement in which he insults, mocks, or attacks the listed individual personally or professionally in a clearly negative manner between market creation and the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Read the full resolution rules on the live market page.

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