Will a new country join the Abraham Accords before 2027?: how this market works

What you need to know

This market asks whether any new country will officially join the Abraham Accords, a set of normalization agreements between Israel and several Arab and Muslim-majority countries, before the end of 2026. A 'Yes' means a country that was not already part of the Accords signs a formal peace and normalization deal with Israel under that framework. A 'No' means no new country does this in time. The UAE, Bahrain, Morocco, and Sudan already count as members and would not trigger a Yes. This resolves Yes only if a new country signs a formal normalization agreement with Israel that both governments publicly acknowledge, and that is clearly connected to the Abraham Accords framework, by December 31, 2026. The key word is 'formal': quiet diplomacy or rumors of talks do not count. The settlement relies on official government statements, or strong consensus from credible news reporting if statements are ambiguous. If no signing happens by the deadline, it resolves No automatically. None of the recent news provided is relevant to this market. To watch for signals that would matter here, pay attention to official diplomatic meetings between Israel and countries like Saudi Arabia, Indonesia, or other nations that have been discussed in normalization talk contexts, as well as any joint statements or White House announcements about Accords expansion. The market prices this at around 35%, meaning participants see it as possible but not the most expected outcome. The real difficulty is that normalization deals depend on many moving parts at once: domestic political will in potential partner countries, the state of the Israel-Gaza conflict, U.S. diplomatic pressure, and regional sentiment. Any of these can stall or accelerate progress unpredictably. Talks can look close and then collapse, or move surprisingly fast. The 18-month runway helps, but the variables are genuinely hard to read.

The odds right now

• Will a new country join the Abraham Accords before 2027?+7.3 pts (1w)35%

Price history

How this resolves

Resolves December 31, 2026

This market will resolve to "Yes" if any country not already a part of the Abraham Accords formally signs a normalization agreement with Israel under the framework of the Abraham Accords by December 31, 2026 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Read the full resolution rules on the live market page.

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