Will any AI model reach ___ Math Arena Score by December 31?: how this market works

What you need to know

This market asks whether any AI chatbot will reach a specific numeric score on a math-focused leaderboard by the end of 2026. The leaderboard at Arena.AI ranks AI models based on how often real users prefer their answers in head-to-head comparisons, specifically for math questions. There are three separate score thresholds: 1550, 1575, and 1600. Each one is its own Yes or No question. A higher score means a model is winning more math comparisons against other models. Each version resolves Yes if any single AI model listed on the Arena.AI math leaderboard shows a score at or above that threshold (1550, 1575, or 1600) before midnight Eastern Time on December 31, 2026. The score must appear in the specific column on the math leaderboard with style control turned off. If the leaderboard website is down at check time, resolution waits until it comes back online. If the site is permanently gone, all three resolve No. None of the provided news headlines relate to this market at all. They cover unrelated topics like a regional budget session and a celebrity court case. There is no relevant recent news to point to here. The kind of update that would matter is a major new AI model release or a jump in math benchmark scores from a leading AI lab. The three thresholds sit at very different odds: 85%, 36%, and 23%, which tells you the market sees 1550 as fairly reachable but 1600 as a real stretch. The core uncertainty is the pace of AI progress, which has been fast but uneven. A single strong new model release could push scores up quickly, but there is no guarantee one arrives before the deadline. The leaderboard scores also shift as more users vote, so a model's position can change over time without any new release at all.

The odds right now

• 1550+4.0 pts (1w)84%
• 1575+14.5 pts (1w)44%
• 1600+6.1 pts (1w)24%

Price history

How this resolves

Resolves December 31, 2026

This market will resolve to "Yes" if any model on the Arena.AI Leaderboard (arena.ai/leaderboard/text) reaches at least the specified Arena Score on the "Leaderboard" tab for "Math" by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Read the full resolution rules on the live market page.

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