Will Claude go down on __ days in July?: how this market works

What you need to know

This market is asking how many days in July 2026 the Claude AI website (claude.ai) will have some kind of outage or disruption. The three outcomes are: 9 to 11 days of downtime (the most popular answer, priced at 73%), 6 to 8 days (17%), or 12 or more days (7%). A 'Yes' for any bracket means the final count of troubled days falls in that range. Think of it like tracking how many days in a month your internet goes out, even briefly. At the end of July 2026, someone checks the official Claude status page at status.claude.com. Each day gets a colored box: green means everything was fine, any other color means that day counts as a downtime day. Only the main claude.ai service counts, not other Claude tools. The total number of non-green days determines which bracket wins. One important edge case: even a tiny, brief interruption on a given day turns that whole day's box non-green, so a short outage still counts as a full downtime day. None of the provided news headlines are relevant to Claude's service reliability or Anthropic's infrastructure. There is no recent news here to draw on. The kind of update that would matter is an Anthropic announcement about infrastructure changes, a major outage report, or a published reliability track record for claude.ai in recent months. The core difficulty is that service reliability depends on factors that are largely invisible from the outside: infrastructure decisions, traffic surges, third-party dependencies, and unplanned incidents. Past outage patterns for claude.ai are not publicly summarized in an easy way, so it is hard to know if 9 to 11 days is historically normal or surprisingly high. The market leans heavily toward that bracket at 73%, so the main open question is whether July brings unusually smooth or unusually rough performance compared to whatever pattern informed those odds.

The odds right now

• 9-11+38.6 pts (1w)72%
• 6-8-38.0 pts (1w)17%
• 12++0.7 pts (1w)7%

Price history

How this resolves

Resolves July 31, 2026

This market will resolve according to the number of days in July 2026 during which Claude (claude.ai) experiences any downtime. Claude will be considered to have experienced downtime on a given day if the Claude Status historical uptime page for the claude.ai component (https://status.claude.com/uptime/) displays that day’s status box as any color other than green once the day’s status box is finalized. Read the full resolution rules on the live market page.

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