Next Mythos-Class Model released by…?: how this market works

What you need to know

This market is asking when Anthropic will publicly release its next top-tier AI model after Claude Fable 5, specifically one that carries the 'Mythos' label. Anthropic uses 'Mythos-class' as an internal tier name for its most advanced models. A Yes means the new model is out and available to anyone who wants to try it by that date. A No means it hasn't launched publicly yet, or only a small private group got access. The market settles Yes if Anthropic releases a new Mythos-class model and makes it genuinely open to the public, meaning anyone can sign up or use it, not just invited testers. The model must either include 'Mythos' in its official name or be described by Anthropic itself as Mythos-class. A closed or invite-only beta does not count. Anthropic's own announcements are the main source of truth, but widely reported credible news coverage also counts. The only potentially relevant headline is a July 22, 2026 story about Google unveiling cheaper Gemini models described as a 'Mythos alternative,' which suggests the AI competition around this tier of model is active. The other headlines are unrelated legal notices. There is no direct news yet about Anthropic announcing or previewing its next Mythos-class release. The core uncertainty is simply timing: AI companies rarely announce exact release dates far in advance, and launches can slip or surprise. The market prices a September 30 deadline at 80%, meaning most participants expect a release by then, but a meaningful gap remains. Factors that could shift things include how quickly Anthropic finishes safety testing, competitive pressure from rivals like Google, and whether any private beta hints at a near launch. No public roadmap from Anthropic makes this genuinely hard to pin down.

The odds right now

• September 30-5.5 pts (1w)80%
• August 31-11.5 pts (1w)39%
• July 31+0.5 pts (1w)7%

Price history

How this resolves

Resolves September 30, 2026

On June 9, 2026, Anthropic released the Mythos-class model Claude Fable 5. This market will resolve to "Yes" if Anthropic releases the next Mythos-class model and makes it available to the general public by the listed date (ET). Read the full resolution rules on the live market page.

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