Will Super Typhoon Dolphin hit China?: how this market works

What you need to know

This market asks whether Typhoon Dolphin will physically make landfall on Chinese soil before August 16, 2026. A Yes means the storm's center crosses onto land controlled by the People's Republic of China, including Hong Kong and Macau but not Taiwan. A No means the storm misses China entirely, fizzles out over water, or gets absorbed before ever reaching the coast. It is a simple geographic question: does the eye of the storm touch Chinese ground? The market settles Yes if the Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA), a respected official weather body, publishes an advisory placing the storm's center over Chinese land, or if credible news confirms a crossing happened. One important catch: the storm must still be classified as a living tropical cyclone at the moment it crosses. If it has already weakened into an extratropical system or dissipated before hitting land, the market resolves No even if the remnants reach China. JMA data is the final authority if sources disagree. None of the provided recent headlines relate to Typhoon Dolphin or weather conditions in the western Pacific. There is no relevant news to summarize here. The kind of update that would matter is a JMA or meteorological agency forecast showing Dolphin's projected track, intensity, and timing as it approaches the region. Typhoon tracks are genuinely hard to forecast more than a few days out, and small shifts in steering winds can mean the difference between a direct hit and an offshore miss. The market currently prices landfall at around 71%, reflecting real possibility but not certainty. Key unknowns include whether Dolphin weakens before reaching the coast, whether it curves away toward another landmass, and whether it dissipates over open water. The classification rule adds another layer: a storm that technically crosses the coast as a weakened remnant would not count.

The odds right now

• Will Super Typhoon Dolphin hit China?69%

Price history

How this resolves

Resolves August 16, 2026

This market resolves "Yes" if the center of Super Typhoon Dolphin's circulation physically crosses the coastline of China on or before August 15, 2026. Resolution is determined by the Japan Meteorological Agency's (JMA) position advisories placing the storm over Chinese land (https://www.jma.go.jp/bosai/map.html#contents=typhoon&lang=en), or by credible international news reporting confirming the storm hitting Chinese territory. Read the full resolution rules on the live market page.

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