Will Super Typhoon Dolphin hit Japan?: how this market works

What you need to know

This market asks whether Typhoon Dolphin will physically make landfall on Japanese soil before August 16, 2026. A 'Yes' means the storm's center, its core rotating point, crosses over land in Japan, including southern islands like Okinawa or the Ryukyu chain, not just passes nearby. A 'No' means the storm misses Japan entirely, weakens before reaching it, or falls apart over the ocean without ever touching Japanese territory. The market settles 'Yes' if Japan's official weather agency, the JMA, publishes an advisory placing the storm's center over Japanese land, or if credible news reporting confirms the crossing happened. One important catch: the storm must still be classified as a tropical cyclone at the moment of crossing. If Dolphin weakens into a post-tropical system or simply dissipates before reaching Japan, the market resolves 'No' even if the remnants pass over land. The deadline is August 15, 2026. None of the recent news provided relates to Typhoon Dolphin or weather conditions in the western Pacific. There is no relevant recent coverage to summarize here. The most useful things to watch for would be JMA track forecasts, any changes in the storm's projected path, and advisories on its intensity as it approaches the region. Typhoon track forecasting is genuinely difficult, even days before potential landfall. Storms can shift course significantly based on atmospheric steering currents that are hard to model. The market sits at 59%, close to a coin flip, which reflects real uncertainty. There is also a specific rules-based uncertainty: if Dolphin weakens just before crossing land, it could resolve 'No' even on a path that looks like a direct hit. Small differences in timing and intensity both matter here.

The odds right now

• Will Super Typhoon Dolphin hit Japan?75%

Price history

How this resolves

Resolves August 16, 2026

This market resolves "Yes" if the center of Super Typhoon Dolphin's circulation physically crosses the coastline of any Japanese territory (including Okinawa, the Ryukyu Islands, and all main islands) on or before August 15, 2026. Resolution is determined by the Japan Meteorological Agency's (JMA) position advisories placing the storm over Japanese land (https://www.jma.go.jp/bosai/map.html#contents=typhoon&lang=en), or by credible international news reporting confirming the storm hitting Japanese territory. Read the full resolution rules on the live market page.

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