Wisconsin Governor Democratic Primary Margin of Victory: how this market works

What you need to know

This market is asking how big the winning gap will be in the August 2026 Wisconsin Democratic primary for governor, specifically focused on a candidate named Hong. The options represent different possible victory margins: for example, 'Hong 30%+' means Hong wins by more than 30 percentage points over the second-place finisher, while 'Hong 25-30%' means the gap is between 25 and 30 points. A large margin means a lopsided, uncompetitive primary; a smaller one means a closer race. The market settles once Wisconsin officially certifies the primary results, expected after August 11, 2026. The key number is the gap between first and second place in vote percentage. Officials at the Wisconsin Elections Commission publish the certified totals, and that is the number used. If a recount happens, the market stays open until it finishes. If results are not officially confirmed by November 30, 2026, the market resolves to 'Other', a catch-all outcome not listed among the main brackets. None of the provided news headlines relate to the Wisconsin gubernatorial Democratic primary. There is no relevant recent news to summarize here. The kind of developments worth watching for would be new candidates entering the race, major endorsements, polling releases, or campaign fundraising reports that signal how competitive the field is becoming. Primaries are genuinely hard to forecast this far out. The candidate field is not yet fully formed, and name recognition, fundraising, and late endorsements can shift margins dramatically in the months before August 2026. The market currently prices Hong winning by 30 or more points as the most likely bracket at 35%, but primary electorates are small and unpredictable, and a serious challenger entering the race could compress any lead quickly. The range of possible outcomes is wide.

The odds right now

• Hong 25–30%30%
• Hong 30%+28%
• Hong 15–20%8%
• Hong 20–25%6%
• Hong 10–15%4%
• Hong <5%2%
• Barnes wins2%
• Crowley wins1%
• Hong 5–10%0%

Price history

How this resolves

Resolves August 11, 2026

The Wisconsin Gubernatorial Democratic primary election is scheduled for August 11, 2026. This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the Wisconsin Gubernatorial Democratic primary election. Read the full resolution rules on the live market page.

Related

Same markets. A fraction of the fee.

These apps all route to the same exchange order book. The difference is what each one adds on top of the exchange's own fee.

Published rates, checked July 2026. MetaMask charges a flat 4 percent per prediction trade. Jupiter adds a fee equal to the exchange's own taker fee at fill time, roughly 2 to 4 percent at typical odds. Where a market carries an exchange settlement fee, it applies everywhere, whichever app you use. Paridesk adds nothing on maker orders.

Trade this market on Paridesk: non-custodial, 0.5% fee.