Zohran Mamdani out as mayor of NYC before 2027?: how this market works

What you need to know

This market asks whether Zohran Mamdani will leave the mayor's office before the end of 2026, after being expected to take over as New York City's mayor on January 1, 2026. A Yes means he stops being mayor for any reason, including resignation, removal, or never taking office in the first place. A No means he starts the job on schedule and stays in it through December 31, 2026. The market settles Yes if Mamdani leaves office for any reason before midnight on December 31, 2026, or if he never takes office by February 1, 2026. One important detail: even just an announcement of resignation counts immediately, even if the actual departure happens later. It settles No if he takes office on time and remains mayor through the end of 2026. Official city sources or a clear consensus of credible news reporting both count as proof. None of the recent headlines provided relate to Zohran Mamdani or New York City politics. There is no relevant news to point to here. The kind of development that would matter is anything about his health, a political crisis, legal trouble, or a dispute over taking office. At 6%, the market strongly implies this is an unlikely outcome, so the honest uncertainty here is simply whether something unexpected happens, not a genuine two-sided debate. Mayors rarely leave office in their first year. The main unknowns are unpredictable events: a sudden health issue, a serious legal development, or a political crisis serious enough to force a departure. These things are rare, but they are not impossible, which is why the market sits at 6% rather than zero.

The odds right now

• Zohran Mamdani out as mayor of NYC before 2027?6%

Price history

How this resolves

Resolves December 31, 2026

This market will resolve to “Yes” if Zohran Mamdani ceases to be the mayor of New York City for any period of time between taking office and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. Read the full resolution rules on the live market page.

Related

Same markets. A fraction of the fee.

These apps all route to the same exchange order book. The difference is what each one adds on top of the exchange's own fee.

Published rates, checked July 2026. MetaMask charges a flat 4 percent per prediction trade. Jupiter adds a fee equal to the exchange's own taker fee at fill time, roughly 2 to 4 percent at typical odds. Where a market carries an exchange settlement fee, it applies everywhere, whichever app you use. Paridesk adds nothing on maker orders.

Trade this market on Paridesk: non-custodial, 0.5% fee.