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Best AI model on August 17?

Best AI model on August 17?

Resolves Aug 17, 2026·$236 24h vol·tech
$236 total volume

claude-opus-5-max

85%+35.5%
OutcomeYesNo
claude-opus-5-max
claude-opus-5-high
Other
claude-opus-4-6-thinking
claude-fable-5
claude-opus-4-6

Order Book

claude-opus-5-max

PriceSharesTotal
98.0¢63$61
97.0¢21$21
96.0¢95$91
94.0¢110$103
93.0¢40$37
92.0¢40$37
91.0¢20$18
90.0¢20$18
no trades yet
10.0¢ spread
80.0¢120$96
61.0¢144$88
14.0¢36$5
13.0¢62$8
6.0¢6$0
5.0¢200$10
1.0¢24$0
$207 bids$386 asks

Resolution Criteria

This market will resolve according to the model that has the highest arena rank based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on the specified date, 12:00 PM ET. Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market. No new model will be added to this market after market creation. Any model not explicitly listed in this market will be encompassed under the "Other" option. Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of model names as listed in this market group (full string, including suffixes such as “-thinking”) will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if two models remain tied, “claude-opus-4-6” would be ranked ahead of “claude-opus-4-6-thinking”). This market will resolve to the model that comes first according to this order. The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".

claude-opus-5-max

85%