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Houthis successfully target shipping by...?

Houthis successfully target shipping by...?

Resolves Sep 30, 2026·$1.4k 24h vol·geopolitics
$1.4k total volume·Open for 1 days

September 30

91%+41.5%
OutcomeYesNo
September 30
September 15
August 31

Order Book

September 30

PriceSharesTotal
99.0¢16$16
97.0¢21$20
96.0¢21$21
94.0¢71$66
93.0¢40$37
no trades yet
4.0¢ spread
89.0¢20$18
88.0¢20$18
87.0¢20$17
86.0¢67$58
73.0¢20$15
71.0¢40$29
69.0¢250$173
50.0¢2.0k$1.0k
$1.3k bids$161 asks

Resolution Criteria

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Houthi forces conduct a kinetic strike on or otherwise seize control of a commercial ship between market creation and the specified date AST (UTC+03:00). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Attacks on military vessels will not be considered. Missile/drone strikes targeting a ship that are intercepted or otherwise do not directly impact the vessel will not be considered, regardless of damage through debris. Seize control refers to Houthi forces forcefully boarding and taking control of a commercial ship. Qualifying incidents include, but are not limited to, drone and missile strikes, aerial bombings, and kinetic actions carried out by Houthi operatives in person, such as seizing a ship by force. The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. If a kinetic incident occurs, but, on the specified date, 11:59 PM AST, material ambiguity remains as to whether the incident can be attributed to Houthi operatives, this market may remain open for an additional 3 calendar days, AST. If, at such time, attribution of the incident still cannot be confirmed, this market will resolve to “No”.

September 30

91%