How high will inflation get in 2026?

Resolution Criteria

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the Consumer Price Index (CPI) increased by greater than the listed percent over the 12 month period ending with any month in 2026 according to the monthly Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) reports. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The resolution source for this market will be the BLS Consumer Price Index reports released for each month of 2026 (https://www.bls.gov/bls/news-release/cpi.htm). Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data. This market may not resolve to "No" until the December 2026 report is issued. Once the December 2026 report is issued, any revisions to previously released CPI figures will not be counted toward this market's resolution. If the CPI report for December 2026 is not issued by January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve based on CPI figures which have already been made available by the BLS. Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly BLS CPI news release which reports inflation over 12 month periods to only one decimal point (e.g. 2.9%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.

This prediction market asks how high US inflation will get at any point during 2026, measured by the 12-month CPI figure in any monthly Bureau of Labor Statistics report. Trading is heavily concentrated on the 'Above 4%' outcome, while higher thresholds attract progressively less backing. Resolution depends on official BLS monthly CPI releases throughout 2026, with a final deadline tied to the December 2026 report.

Market structure

The market runs across eight threshold outcomes, each resolving 'Yes' independently if the 12-month CPI reading in any single 2026 monthly BLS report exceeds that level. Volume is heavily concentrated at the lower thresholds and thins sharply at the higher ones, forming a steep distribution. The resolution source is the official BLS CPI news release, which reports to one decimal place. The market cannot resolve 'No' on any threshold until the December 2026 report is published, with a hard fallback deadline of 31 January 2027.

Background

US inflation surged to a four-decade high above 9% in mid-2022 before a sustained Federal Reserve tightening cycle brought it back toward the 2–3% range by late 2023 and through 2024. However, inflation proved sticky in some categories, and the trajectory into 2026 is shaped by ongoing debates about trade policy, tariffs, energy prices, and labour market conditions. The BLS Consumer Price Index is the principal benchmark used by policymakers, financial markets, and wage-setters across the United States. A reading above 4% in any month would represent a meaningful re-acceleration from recent levels, while a reading above 8% or 10% would signal a return toward the acute conditions seen in 2022. The question of whether inflation re-accelerates, stabilises, or continues declining is one of the most consequential macroeconomic questions facing the US economy in 2026.

Key factors

Several structural and policy factors could influence how high CPI climbs at any point in 2026. Tariff policy is a significant variable: broad import duties raise input costs for goods, which can pass through to consumer prices over several months. Energy price volatility, driven by geopolitical events or shifts in OPEC production policy, has historically produced sharp swings in headline CPI. Housing costs, which carry substantial weight in the CPI basket, tend to adjust slowly and could either sustain elevated readings or moderate depending on rental market conditions. Federal Reserve interest rate decisions will influence credit costs and broader demand; any pivot toward rate cuts could ease financial conditions and potentially support price growth. Labour market tightness affects services inflation through wage pass-through. A single month of elevated year-on-year CPI is sufficient to resolve a threshold 'Yes', meaning base effects — comparing against unusually low or high months in 2025 — are also a mechanically important factor regardless of underlying price momentum.

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