How high will inflation get in 2026?

What you need to know

This market is asking whether U.S. inflation will spike to a notably high level at any point during 2026 — specifically, whether prices overall will be more than 4.5%, 5%, or 8% higher than they were exactly one year earlier. The Consumer Price Index, or CPI, is the government's main tool for measuring this: it tracks what everyday things cost, from groceries to rent to gasoline. A 'Yes' means inflation climbed past that threshold in at least one month of the year. A 'No' means it never did. Each threshold resolves Yes the moment any single monthly BLS report in 2026 shows a 12-month inflation figure above that level — so it only needs to happen once, in any month. The BLS rounds its official figure to one decimal place, so exactly 4.5% would not trigger the 'above 4.5%' market — it would need to read 4.6% or higher. A No verdict can only be confirmed after the December 2026 report is released. If that report is delayed past January 31, 2027, whatever data is available at that point is used instead. Recent headlines point to U.S. inflation sitting at 4.2% as of early June 2026, driven partly by rising energy costs. That figure is already above the Federal Reserve's 2% target and close to — but still below — the 4.5% threshold in this market. This is directly relevant: it tells us where inflation stands right now and how much further it would need to climb to trigger each Yes outcome. One unrelated headline about an Indian state official can be safely set aside. The core difficulty is that inflation can move quickly and is shaped by forces that are hard to predict: energy prices, supply chain disruptions, trade policy changes, and Federal Reserve interest rate decisions all play a role. With inflation currently at 4.2%, the market prices the 'above 4.5%' threshold at 39% — not a certainty, but not remote either. Whether energy costs keep rising, ease off, or something unexpected happens in the economy between now and December is genuinely unknown, which is why all three thresholds remain live questions.

The odds right now

• Above 4.5%-25.5 pts (1w)40%
• Above 5%-8.5 pts (1w)23%
• Above 8%+4.9 pts (1w)11%
• Above 6%-3.5 pts (1w)10%
• Above 10%-2.1 pts (1w)4%

Price history

How this resolves

Resolves December 31, 2026

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the Consumer Price Index (CPI) increased by greater than the listed percent over the 12 month period ending with any month in 2026 according to the monthly Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) reports. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The resolution source for this market will be the BLS Consumer Price Index reports released for each month of 2026 (https://www.bls.gov/bls/news-release/cpi.htm). Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data. This market may not resolve to "No" until the December 2026 report is issued. Once the December 2026 report is issued, any revisions to previously released CPI figures will not be counted toward this market's resolution. If the CPI report for December 2026 is not issued by January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve based on CPI figures which have already been made available by the BLS. Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly BLS CPI news release which reports inflation over 12 month periods to only one decimal point (e.g. 2.9%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.

Related

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