How high will inflation get in 2026?: how this market works

What you need to know

This market asks whether U.S. inflation will spike above a specific threshold at any point during 2026. Inflation is measured by the Consumer Price Index, or CPI, which tracks how much everyday prices, like groceries, rent, and gas, have risen compared to a year earlier. There are three separate versions of this question, each with a different ceiling: above 4.5%, above 5%, or above 6%. A Yes means prices surged past that level. A No means they stayed below it all year. Each version resolves Yes the moment any single monthly BLS report in 2026 shows 12-month inflation above that version's threshold. The BLS reports figures to one decimal place, so 4.5% exactly would not trigger a Yes for the 'above 4.5%' version. It cannot resolve No until the December 2026 report is published. If that report is delayed past January 31, 2027, whatever data is available by then is used instead. The BLS is the only source that counts here. None of the provided news headlines are directly relevant to U.S. inflation in 2026. The stories cover political topics, European central bank policy, and unrelated international finance. To follow this market, the key things to watch are monthly BLS CPI reports, U.S. Federal Reserve interest rate decisions, and any major economic shocks like new tariffs, energy price swings, or supply disruptions. The market prices the 'above 4.5%' version at around 24%, meaning participants collectively see it as unlikely but far from impossible. The core difficulty is that inflation is shaped by many forces at once: trade policy, energy prices, consumer demand, and Fed decisions, any of which can shift quickly and unpredictably. The year still has months left, and a single supply shock or policy change could move CPI meaningfully. The lower the threshold, the more plausible a surprise becomes.

The odds right now

• Above 4.5%+1.0 pts (1w)25%
• Above 5%+0.5 pts (1w)15%
• Above 6%-0.2 pts (1w)6%
• Above 10%3%
• Above 8%-0.3 pts (1w)2%

Price history

How this resolves

Resolves December 31, 2026

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the Consumer Price Index (CPI) increased by greater than the listed percent over the 12 month period ending with any month in 2026 according to the monthly Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) reports. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Read the full resolution rules on the live market page.

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