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How low will 2-year Treasury yield get before 2027?

How low will 2-year Treasury yield get before 2027?

Resolves Jan 1, 2027·$381 24h vol·economy
$381 total volume

Below 4.70%

89%+38.5%
OutcomeYesNo
Below 4.70%
Below 4.60%
Below 4.50%
Below 4.40%
Below 4.30%
Below 4.20%
Below 4.10%
Below 4.00%
Below 3.90%

Order Book

Below 4.70%

PriceSharesTotal
99.0¢424$419
98.0¢252$247
97.0¢8$7
91.0¢60$55
90.0¢350$315
89.0¢262$233
no trades yet
1.0¢ spread
88.0¢170$150
87.0¢220$191
3.0¢9$0
2.0¢244$5
1.0¢419$4
$350 bids$1.3k asks

Resolution Criteria

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Treasury 2-year yield is lower than the listed value for any date from market creation to December 31, 2026. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No". This market will resolve as soon as the Treasury 2-year yield is lower than the listed value, or once data is available for the final business day of 2026. If no qualifying value is published and data is not available for the final business day of 2026 by January 14, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No". The resolution source for this market is the Department of the treasury, specifically the data listed under "Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates" for the column "2 Yr" (see: https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2026).

Below 4.70%

89%