← Markets
How low will 5-year Treasury yield get before 2027?

How low will 5-year Treasury yield get before 2027?

Resolves Dec 31, 2026·$968 24h vol·economy
$137.2k total volume·Open for 48 days

Below 4.50%

37%-31.5%
OutcomeYesNo
Below 4.50%
Below 4.45%
Below 4.40%
Below 4.35%
Below 4.30%
Below 4.10%
Below 4.00%
Below 4.20%
Below 4.25%

Order Book

Below 4.50%

PriceSharesTotal
99.0¢39$39
98.0¢6$6
88.0¢974$857
86.0¢5$4
85.0¢20$17
41.0¢20$8
40.0¢600$240
39.0¢40$16
no trades yet
4.0¢ spread
35.0¢159$56
34.0¢972$331
32.0¢77$25
29.0¢322$93
27.0¢400$108
20.0¢560$112
18.0¢40$7
17.0¢80$14
$745 bids$1.2k asks

Resolution Criteria

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Treasury 5-year yield is lower than the listed value for any date between September 3, 2026 and December 31, 2026. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No". This market will resolve as soon as the Treasury 5-year yield is lower than the listed value, or once data is available for December 31, 2026. If no qualifying value is published and data is not available for December 31, 2026 by January 14, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No". The resolution source for this market is the Department of the treasury, specifically the data listed under "Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates" for the column "5 Yr" (see: https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2026).

Below 4.50%

37%