MagicBlock FDV above ___ one day after launch?

Resolution Criteria

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Fully Diluted Valuation of MagicBlock's governance token is greater than the value specified in the title 1 day after launch. Otherwise, the market will resolve to "No." The token must be actively, publicly transferable and tradable to be considered a launch. The FDV will be determined using the total token supply multiplied by the token price. "1 day after launch" is defined as 4:00 PM ET on the calendar day following launch. The resolution source for this market is the most liquid price source available. If MagicBlock (https://x.com/magicblock) doesn't launch a token by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".

MagicBlock's governance token FDV market shows volume heavily concentrated at lower thresholds, with the $20M and $10M brackets the most heavily backed to resolve 'Yes' on launch day. Higher thresholds such as $300M attract considerably less backing. Resolution is set for one calendar day after the token's public launch, with a hard deadline of 1 January 2027 if no launch occurs.

Market structure

Seven independent Yes/No brackets span from $10M to $300M FDV. Volume is heavily concentrated at the lower end, thinning progressively toward higher thresholds, creating a staircase distribution. Each bracket resolves independently based on total token supply multiplied by the token price at 4:00 PM ET on the calendar day following launch, using the most liquid available price source. If MagicBlock does not launch a transferable, publicly tradable token by 31 December 2026, all brackets resolve No.

Background

MagicBlock is a Solana-focused infrastructure project developing an Ephemeral Rollups protocol designed to enable real-time, composable on-chain gaming and applications. The project has attracted developer interest within the Solana ecosystem for its approach to reducing latency without sacrificing composability with the base layer. A governance token has been publicly discussed but not yet launched as of available reporting. FDV-at-launch markets have become a common format for anticipating how the crypto market will initially price a new protocol token, particularly for infrastructure-layer projects where comparables vary widely in valuation.

Key factors

The token's opening FDV will depend on several structural variables. Initial circulating supply relative to total supply determines whether early price discovery reflects diluted or concentrated holdings. The broader Solana ecosystem sentiment and general crypto market conditions at the time of launch will influence demand. Any prior fundraising rounds and their implied valuations may serve as anchors for public market pricing. Timing of the launch relative to competitor token events or major market catalysts could amplify or dampen initial interest. Exchange listings and liquidity depth on launch day directly affect the price used for resolution. The project's traction metrics — developer adoption, active integrations, and any usage statistics published before launch — may also shape initial market reception. A delay beyond 31 December 2026 causes all outcomes to resolve No regardless of the eventual token price.

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