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Next Claude Opus (5.6+) released on...?

Next Claude Opus (5.6+) released on...?

Resolves Dec 1, 2026·$3.5k 24h vol·tech
$3.5k total volume

No release by November 30

22%-34.0%
OutcomeYesNo
No release by November 30
November 12
November 24
November 30
November 6
November 2
November 28
On or prior to October 31
November 3
November 23

Order Book

No release by November 30

PriceSharesTotal
80.0¢20$16
79.0¢100$79
67.0¢20$13
66.0¢95$63
57.0¢21$12
53.0¢20$11
52.0¢30$16
34.0¢33$11
11.0¢last trade
24.0¢ spread
10.0¢21$2
2.0¢136$3
1.0¢227$2
$7 bids$220 asks

Resolution Criteria

This market will resolve according to the calendar date (ET) on which Anthropic's next Claude Opus model (5.6+) is made available to the general public. A qualifying model must have a name or model identifier that includes "Opus" and be designated as version 5.6 or higher, regardless of capitalization or surrounding prefixes, suffixes, dates, or descriptors. For example, a version 5.6 or higher named in the same manner as Claude Opus 5 or Claude Opus 5.5 would qualify, including a new whole-number generation such as Claude Opus 6, while models whose name does not include "Opus" or which retain a version designation below 5.6, such as Claude Opus 5.5, including any rollout, promotion, or snapshot of it, will not qualify. A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must either be clearly defined and publicly announced by Anthropic as accessible to the general public, or otherwise be made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled on the company's official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Anthropic, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.

No release by November 30

23%