← Markets
Next Grok Model (4.7+) released on...?

Next Grok Model (4.7+) released on...?

Resolves Sep 30, 2026·$372 24h vol·tech
$372 total volume

September 16

42%-4.0%
OutcomeYesNo
September 16
September 15
September 17
September 10
September 20
September 23
On or prior to September 9
September 11
September 21
September 14

Order Book

September 16

PriceSharesTotal
93.0¢14$13
92.0¢10$9
90.0¢10$9
87.0¢8$7
86.0¢7$6
80.0¢86$69
78.0¢160$125
77.0¢56$43
50.0¢last trade
71.0¢ spread
6.0¢26$2
5.0¢10$1
2.0¢276$6
1.0¢450$5
$12 bids$281 asks

Resolution Criteria

This market will resolve according to the calendar date (ET) on which SpaceXAI's next Grok model (4.7+) is made available to the general public. A qualifying model must have a name or model identifier that includes "Grok" and be designated as version 4.7 or higher, regardless of capitalization or surrounding prefixes, suffixes, dates, or descriptors. For example, a version 4.7 or higher named in the same manner as Grok 4.5, Grok 4.6, or grok-4.6-high would qualify, including reasoning, Fast, Heavy, or similar variants carrying a 4.7 or higher designation and a new whole-number generation such as Grok 5, while models whose name does not include "Grok" or which retain a version designation below 4.7, such as Grok 4.6 (released August 12, 2026), including any rollout, promotion, or snapshot of it, will not qualify. Separately numbered product lines that do not carry the core Grok version designation, such as Grok Code Fast or Grok Imagine, will not qualify, and version numbers of the Grok app, website, or other products that do not correspond to a new underlying model will not qualify. A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must either be clearly defined and publicly announced by SpaceXAI as accessible to the general public, or otherwise be made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled on the company's official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from SpaceXAI, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.

September 16

42%