Which guests will appear on the UpOnly podcast before 2027?

Resolution Criteria

This market will resolve to “Yes” if a new episode of the UpOnly podcast featuring the specified guest is publicly released by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, it will resolve to “No.” “Released” means the full episode is published and available to the general public on an official UpOnly platform (e.g. YouTube, Spotify, Apple Podcasts, or the show’s official feed). Previews, clips, teasers, or promotional material do not count toward resolution. The resolution source will be the official UpOnly podcast channels and/or a consensus of credible public reporting.

This prediction market asks which of 21 named guests will appear on the UpOnly podcast in a publicly released full episode before the end of 2026. Volume is broadly distributed across a wide field, with Martin Shkreli, Brian Armstrong, Michael Saylor, ThreadGuy, light, Thomas Lee, and Gainzy among the heaviest-backed individual outcomes. Resolution depends on a full episode being publicly available on official UpOnly channels by 31 December 2026.

Market structure

The market covers 21 separate yes/no outcomes, each resolving independently based on whether a named guest appears in a full, publicly released UpOnly episode by 31 December 2026 at 11:59 PM ET. Volume is broadly distributed across the field rather than concentrated on a handful of names. Resolution source is the official UpOnly podcast channels across platforms including YouTube, Spotify, and Apple Podcasts, with credible public reporting as a secondary reference. Clips and teasers do not count.

Background

UpOnly is a crypto-focused podcast hosted by Cobie and Ledger, known for long-form conversational interviews with prominent figures from across the cryptocurrency and decentralised finance ecosystem. The show gained a significant following during the 2021 bull market cycle and has featured a mix of builders, traders, investors, and public figures with crypto connections. It is regarded as one of the more substantive interview formats in the space, with episodes typically running several hours. The market reflects audience speculation about which high-profile or culturally significant guests the hosts will book across the remainder of the 2024–2026 period, spanning a range of figures from crypto-native personalities to politicians and finance commentators with varying degrees of connection to the industry.

Key factors

Guest availability and willingness to participate will vary considerably across the 21 names. Several outcomes involve individuals with legal constraints or reputational sensitivities — for instance, individuals involved in ongoing or concluded legal proceedings may face restrictions on public appearances or have strategic reasons to avoid or seek media exposure. Political figures involve scheduling complexity around electoral or governance calendars. Crypto-native guests who are active on social media and already embedded in the community may be easier to book, while those outside the industry — such as politicians or macro commentators — may require a more specific news hook or point of relevance. The overall pace of episode releases and whether the show maintains an active schedule through 2026 will affect how many of the 21 outcomes resolve positively. Platform-specific publication and any changes to the show's format or hosting arrangements could also affect resolution.

FAQ