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Which of these Republicans will be the first to announce a run for President?

Which of these Republicans will be the first to announce a run for President?

Resolves Jan 1, 2028·$0 24h vol·politics
$14.1k total volume·Open for 95 days

Ted Cruz

54%+46.5%
OutcomeYesNo
Ted Cruz
J.D. Vance
Donald Trump Jr.
Marjorie Taylor Greene
Marco Rubio
Ron DeSantis
Vivek Ramaswamy
Donald Trump
Rand Paul
Glenn Youngkin

Order Book

Ted Cruz

PriceSharesTotal
94.0¢30$28
93.0¢100$93
91.0¢25$23
90.0¢8$8
84.0¢30$25
74.0¢125$93
73.0¢242$177
72.0¢54$39
28.0¢last trade
42.0¢ spread
30.0¢105$32
29.0¢634$184
28.0¢20$6
26.0¢60$16
12.0¢5$1
2.0¢20$0
1.0¢16$0
$238 bids$485 asks

Resolution Criteria

This market will resolve according to the first listed individual who publicly and unambiguously announces their candidacy in the 2028 United States presidential election, whether they are seeking any party nomination in the election or otherwise. An announcement that an individual is exploring a run or has formed an exploratory committee will be insufficient to resolve this market. The listed individuals are: J.D. Vance, Marco Rubio, Ron DeSantis, Donald Trump, Donald Trump Jr., Glenn Youngkin, Vivek Ramaswamy, Ted Cruz, Rand Paul, and Marjorie Taylor Greene. An announcement by a listed individual will be sufficient to trigger resolution, regardless of whether they file their candidacy with the relevant regulatory authority. A campaign filing without an announcement will not be sufficient to resolve this market. If no listed individual makes such an announcement by December 31, 2027 at 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". Once a qualifying announcement is made, subsequent withdrawal or retraction will not affect resolution. The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements by the listed individuals (ex: via speech, social media, etc.), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Ted Cruz

53%