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Which of these republicans will be the first to announce a run for President?

Which of these republicans will be the first to announce a run for President?

Resolves Dec 31, 2027·$297 24h vol·politics
$297 total volume

J.D. Vance

48%-1.5%
OutcomeYesNo
J.D. Vance
Marco Rubio
Donald Trump
Ted Cruz
Donald Trump Jr.
Vivek Ramaswamy
Marjorie Taylor Greene
Glenn Youngkin
Rand Paul
Ron DeSantis

Order Book

J.D. Vance

PriceSharesTotal
99.0¢228$225
98.0¢45$45
95.0¢71$67
94.0¢7$7
93.0¢45$42
92.0¢5$5
91.0¢50$46
90.0¢20$18
50.0¢last trade
85.0¢ spread
5.0¢51$3
4.0¢300$12
3.0¢400$12
2.0¢200$4
1.0¢500$5
$36 bids$454 asks

Resolution Criteria

This market will resolve according to the first listed individual who publicly and unambiguously announces their candidacy in the 2028 United States presidential election, whether they are seeking any party nomination in the election or otherwise. An announcement that an individual is exploring a run or has formed an exploratory committee will be insufficient to resolve this market. The listed individuals are: J.D. Vance, Marco Rubio, Ron DeSantis, Donald Trump, Donald Trump Jr., Glenn Youngkin, Vivek Ramaswamy, Ted Cruz, Rand Paul, and Marjorie Taylor Greene. An announcement by a listed individual will be sufficient to trigger resolution, regardless of whether they file their candidacy with the relevant regulatory authority. A campaign filing without an announcement will not be sufficient to resolve this market. If no listed individual makes such an announcement by December 31, 2027 at 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". Once a qualifying announcement is made, subsequent withdrawal or retraction will not affect resolution. The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements by the listed individuals (ex: via speech, social media, etc.), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

J.D. Vance

48%