Will SCOTUS let Trump build the White House ballroom by September 30?

Resolution Criteria

The Supreme Court of the United States is expected to be asked to review lower-court rulings blocking construction of a new White House ballroom on the former site of the East Wing offices. As of market creation, a preliminary injunction affirmed by the D.C. Circuit blocks above-ground construction while permitting below-ground work. This market will resolve to "Yes" if, by September 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the Supreme Court of the United States issues any ruling or order that has the effect of permitting construction to resume on any above-ground portion of the ballroom project. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No." A qualifying ruling or order includes a merits decision, a stay of a lower-court injunction, or any other form of interim or permanent relief, so long as its effect is that above-ground construction is legally permitted to proceed. A ruling or order affecting only below-ground work will not qualify. Once a qualifying ruling or order has been issued, this market will resolve to "Yes" regardless of whether the ruling or order is later vacated, reversed, or superseded, and regardless of whether construction actually resumes. This market will resolve to "No" if no qualifying ruling or order is issued by the deadline, including if the Supreme Court declines to hear the case, dismisses it, or resolves it on grounds that leave the block on above-ground construction in place. Above-ground construction becoming permitted through any mechanism other than a Supreme Court ruling or order — including congressional authorization, settlement, or dismissal of the underlying lawsuit — will not qualify. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Supreme Court of the United States (including orders published at supremecourt.gov); however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.