Will the U.S. invade Mexico in 2026?
Resolves Dec 31, 2026·$23.8k 24h vol·geopolitics
9 comments·$192.1k total volume·Open for 160 days
Will the U.S. invade Mexico in 2026?
5%-1.7%
OutcomeYesNo1W24h Vol
+0.4%
$23.8k
Order Book
Will the U.S. invade Mexico in 2026?
PriceSharesTotal
8.0¢500$40
7.0¢1.5k$103
6.8¢896$61
6.7¢183$12
6.0¢1.0k$63
5.9¢310$18
5.8¢48$3
5.7¢57$3
5.6¢21$1
5.5¢17$1
4.8¢last trade
1.3¢ spread4.2¢23$1
4.1¢685$28
4.0¢1.6k$64
3.3¢455$15
3.2¢338$11
3.1¢289$9
3.0¢1.6k$49
2.1¢1.1k$24
2.0¢1.0k$20
1.3¢25$0
$221 bids$306 asks
Resolution Criteria
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of Mexican land territory by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For the purposes of this market, land de facto controlled by Mexico or the United States, as of market creation, will be considered the sovereign territory of that country. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
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