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Will there be a power grid emergency before October 1?

Will there be a power grid emergency before October 1?

Resolves Oct 1, 2026·$200 24h vol·weather
$200 total volume

California (CAISO)

43%-7.5%
OutcomeYesNo
California (CAISO)
Central US (SPP)
Mid-Atlantic (PJM)
New York (NYISO)
Midwest (MISO)
Texas (ERCOT)
New England (ISO-NE)

Order Book

California (CAISO)

PriceSharesTotal
99.0¢556$551
98.0¢8$8
96.0¢9$8
95.0¢16$16
76.0¢10$8
29.0¢last trade
67.0¢ spread
9.0¢20$2
8.0¢37$3
7.0¢50$4
6.0¢12$1
5.0¢60$3
4.0¢6$0
3.0¢250$8
2.0¢482$10
$29 bids$590 asks

Resolution Criteria

This event tracks whether each listed U.S. regional grid operator declares a NERC Energy Emergency Alert at Level 2 (EEA-2) or Level 3 (EEA-3) from this event's creation through that market's deadline of 11:59 PM local time on September 30, 2026. Each regional market resolves independently to "Yes" or "No" under its own operator, sources, and rules shown on that market, and more than one market may resolve "Yes". Each market is confirmed by any official communication from the relevant grid operator — its newsroom or press releases (linked in that market's rules), market or grid notices, or real-time system-status postings — or by credible national news reporting. A lower EEA-1 declaration does not qualify in any market. A declaration qualifies as long as it happened before the deadline, even if it is only documented or reported afterward. A DOE Section 202(c) emergency order is not a NERC EEA declaration and does not qualify in any market. Because Energy Emergency Alerts are federally reportable, a qualifying declaration is also verifiable through mandatory NERC or U.S. Department of Energy records (DOE Form OE-417, published at https://www.oe.netl.doe.gov/oe417.aspx) even if no other source captures it.

California (CAISO)

43%