Will Ukraine agree to give up the rest of Donbas before 2027?

Resolution Criteria

This market will resolve to "Yes" if a deal in which Ukraine agrees to cede de facto control of all major cities under their control in the Donetsk and Luhansk Oblasts is reached between the Russian Federation and Ukraine by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. For the purposes of this market, major cities under Ukrainian control include the following: Kramatorsk, Sloviansk, Kostiantynivka, Druzhkivka, and Pokrovsk. The deal must be a publicly announced mutual agreement or otherwise confirmed by an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting. If such an agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes", regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect. Any agreement which cedes de facto military control of the listed cities will qualify regardless of if Ukraine formally maintains its claim to sovereignty. For example, the 1999 Kumanovo Military Technical Agreement, in which Yugoslavia agreed to pull military forces out of Kosovo but did not recognize Kosovo’s autonomy or independence would qualify for a 'Yes' resolution. A Ukrainian agreement to cede de facto military control, will qualify regardless of the group/entity which replaces them. Only territory ceded as part of a diplomatic process or agreement will qualify. If Russia captures these cities through military action it will not qualify for a “Yes” resolution. The primary resolution source for this market will be an official announcement by Ukraine and/or the Russian Federation, however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming an agreement has been reached will also qualify.

Prediction markets place this question firmly in the 'No' camp, with trading heavily concentrated against Ukraine agreeing to cede de facto control of its remaining Donbas cities — Kramatorsk, Sloviansk, Kostiantynivka, Druzhkivka, and Pokrovsk — before the end of 2026. The market resolves 'Yes' only if a publicly announced mutual agreement or overwhelming credible reporting confirms Ukraine has ceded military control of all five listed cities by 31 December 2026. Resolution does not require formal recognition of Russian sovereignty, only confirmed de facto military handover through a diplomatic process.

Market structure

The market has a single binary outcome. Trading is heavily concentrated on a 'No' resolution, reflecting the scale of diplomatic and military conditions that would need to align within the timeframe. Resolution requires a publicly announced mutual agreement, or an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting, confirming Ukraine has ceded de facto military control of Kramatorsk, Sloviansk, Kostiantynivka, Druzhkivka, and Pokrovsk. Military capture by Russia without a diplomatic agreement does not qualify. The deadline is 31 December 2026.

Background

Ukraine's remaining foothold in the Donbas region — centred on the cities of Kramatorsk and Sloviansk, which form the administrative and logistical core of Ukrainian-controlled Donetsk Oblast — has been the subject of sustained Russian military pressure since the full-scale invasion began in February 2022. Russia formally annexed all four oblasts of Donetsk, Luhansk, Zaporizhzhia, and Kherson in September 2022, though it has never controlled them in full. Peace negotiations have periodically surfaced, including talks facilitated or proposed by various third parties in 2024 and 2025, but Ukraine has consistently maintained that territorial concessions are unacceptable without strong security guarantees. The cities named in this market's resolution criteria sit along critical supply and defensive lines, making their status a central point in any future ceasefire or settlement discussions.

Key factors

Several structural factors bear on how this market could resolve. First, the military situation on the ground: sustained Russian advances toward Pokrovsk and the broader western Donetsk front could alter the strategic calculus for Ukrainian negotiators, though military capture alone does not trigger resolution. Second, the diplomatic environment: any framework negotiations involving the United States, European Union, or other third-party mediators that gain traction before mid-2026 would affect the probability of a formal agreement materialising within the deadline. Third, domestic Ukrainian politics: any agreement ceding de facto control of major population centres would require significant political legitimacy, including potential constitutional and parliamentary processes, compressing the realistic window for agreement. Fourth, the resolution criteria's specific wording excludes outcomes where Russia simply captures the cities militarily, meaning a 'Yes' requires a genuine negotiated handover. Fifth, international guarantees or security arrangements offered to Ukraine in exchange for territorial concessions could shift the political viability of such an agreement.

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