2026 Montgomery County Judge Election Winner: how this market works

What you need to know

This market is asking who will win the election for County Judge of Montgomery County, Texas in November 2026. The County Judge is the top elected official in a Texas county, handling both administrative duties and some judicial functions. A Yes for Mark Keough means he wins that election and takes the office. A Yes for James Graf means he does instead. The market currently prices Keough as the strong favorite at 87%, with Graf at 10%. The market settles on whichever candidate officially wins the November 3, 2026 election and becomes the next County Judge of Montgomery County, TX. The result is confirmed through credible news reporting, with official Texas and county records as a backup if anything is unclear. One important edge case: if someone is appointed to the role temporarily before the election, that does not count. Also, if no clear winner is known by April 30, 2027, the market resolves to 'Other' instead of either candidate. None of the provided news headlines relate to this election or to Montgomery County, Texas in any way. They appear to be unrelated stories from other topics entirely. There is no recent news to point to here. The kind of developments worth watching for would be candidate announcements, primary results, endorsements, or local polling from Montgomery County. The market is heavily one-sided, with Keough at 87%, so the main uncertainty is simply whether something unexpected happens before or on Election Day. Montgomery County is a reliably Republican-leaning area, and Keough has held the role before, which likely drives the high odds. The real risk for the favorite is a primary challenge, a late-breaking local controversy, or a surprise candidate emerging. With over a year until the election, there is still time for the race to shift in ways no one can see yet.

The odds right now

• Mark Keough+2.0 pts (1w)91%
• James Graf-34.6 pts (1w)6%

Price history

How this resolves

Resolves November 3, 2026

The 2026 Montgomery County Judge election will be held on November 3, 2026, to elect the County Judge of Montgomery County, TX. This market will resolve according to the candidate who becomes the next County Judge of Montgomery County as a result of this election. Read the full resolution rules on the live market page.

Related

Same markets. A fraction of the fee.

These apps all route to the same exchange order book. The difference is what each one adds on top of the exchange's own fee.

Published rates, checked July 2026. MetaMask charges a flat 4 percent per prediction trade. Jupiter adds a fee equal to the exchange's own taker fee at fill time, roughly 2 to 4 percent at typical odds. Where a market carries an exchange settlement fee, it applies everywhere, whichever app you use. Paridesk adds nothing on maker orders.

Trade this market on Paridesk: non-custodial, 0.5% fee.