2026 Tarrant County Judge Election Winner: how this market works

What you need to know

This market asks who will win the elected position of County Judge in Tarrant County, Texas, in November 2026. Tarrant County includes Fort Worth and is one of the largest counties in Texas. The County Judge is not a courtroom judge in the traditional sense; this is an executive and administrative role, leading the county's governing body. A win for Alisa Simmons means she takes that seat; a win for Tim O'Hare means he does. The market currently prices them close, at 48% and 41%. The market settles on whoever officially wins the November 3, 2026 general election for Tarrant County Judge. The result will be confirmed using credible news reporting, and if there is any dispute, official Texas and Tarrant County records are the final word. One important edge case: if the result is somehow still unclear by April 30, 2027, the market resolves as 'Other', not Yes or No for either candidate. Anyone appointed temporarily before the election does not count. None of the recent news provided relates to this race or to Tarrant County. There is no relevant reporting to point to here. The kinds of developments that would matter to watch for include primary election results confirming the final candidates, major local endorsements, fundraising disclosures, and any polling specific to Tarrant County in the months leading up to November 2026. This race is genuinely competitive, with the two candidates separated by only 7 percentage points in the market, which signals real uncertainty. Tarrant County has been politically shifting in recent years, moving from reliably Republican territory toward more contested ground, and that ongoing shift makes the outcome hard to call. Voter turnout patterns in a midterm-year county race can swing results significantly. With over a year until the election, a lot can change, including candidate momentum, national political climate, and local issues.

The odds right now

• Alisa Simmons+7.5 pts (1w)48%
• Tim O'Hare-35.5 pts (1w)41%

Price history

How this resolves

Resolves November 3, 2026

The 2026 Tarrant County Judge election will be held on November 3, 2026, to elect the County Judge of Tarrant County, TX. This market will resolve according to the candidate who becomes the next County Judge of Tarrant County as a result of this election. Read the full resolution rules on the live market page.

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