3rd largest private company end of August?: how this market works

What you need to know

This market is asking which company will hold the third-highest valuation among all large private companies at the end of August 2026. Think of it as a ranking contest: somewhere above these companies sit the two most valuable private firms, and this question is about who sits just below them in third place. Databricks, Stripe, and OpenAI are the main candidates, and the answer depends on their dollar valuations as tracked in private secondary markets, where shares in private companies are bought and sold before any stock-market listing. The market settles based on valuation data published by NPM (a private-market data source called New Providence Market, accessed through SecondMarket) on August 31, 2026. Whoever holds the third-highest private valuation on that date wins. One important edge case: if a listed company goes public via an IPO before that date, its last private valuation is used instead of its public market price. If a company is acquired and disappears as an independent entity, only its pre-acquisition private valuation counts. None of the recent news provided relates to Databricks, Stripe, OpenAI, or private company valuations. There is nothing here that speaks directly to this market. The kind of news that would matter includes fresh funding rounds for any of these companies, a major valuation update from secondary markets, or an announcement that one of them is planning an IPO. The core difficulty is that private valuations are not updated in real time like stock prices. They shift when new funding rounds happen or when secondary-market trading changes. A single large funding round between now and August 2026 could push one company past another. OpenAI in particular has seen dramatic valuation swings tied to AI excitement. Any of the three could also go public before the deadline, which would freeze their valuation at their last private figure, potentially changing the ranking. There is also over a year left, which is a long time in a fast-moving industry.

The odds right now

• Databricks75%
• Stripe14%
• Anduril7%
• OpenAI5%
• Kraken5%
• Epic Games4%
• Anthropic4%
• Canva4%
• Neuralink4%
• Lambda3%
• Perplexity1%

Price history

How this resolves

Resolves September 1, 2026

This market will resolve to the listed company with the third largest private market valuation on July 31, 2026. NPM Prices are published for trading days only and are updated once daily at 1:00 PM ET on the following calendar day. Read the full resolution rules on the live market page.

Related

Same markets. A fraction of the fee.

These apps all route to the same exchange order book. The difference is what each one adds on top of the exchange's own fee.

Published rates, checked July 2026. MetaMask charges a flat 4 percent per prediction trade. Jupiter adds a fee equal to the exchange's own taker fee at fill time, roughly 2 to 4 percent at typical odds. Where a market carries an exchange settlement fee, it applies everywhere, whichever app you use. Paridesk adds nothing on maker orders.

Trade this market on Paridesk: non-custodial, 0.5% fee.